Analyzing the Flood Intensifying Factors and Mitigation Strategies to Enhance the Flood Resilience in Pakistan: A Novel Hybrid Fuzzy-FUCOM-Fuzzy-WASPAS Approach

Abstract

Communities have been menaced by floods for ages. Geographically, South Asia is one of the most flood prone regions of the world. In South Asia, particularly Pakistan has the long and deadly history of floods causing losses to various infrastructure, lives, and industries. Over the last two decades, frequency and severity of flood events have been increased and has adversely affected the livelihood and well-being of millions of people in Pakistan. Therefore, the nation must develop appropriate risk management policies and procedures. The purpose of this research study is to identify the most appropriate flood risk mitigation strategies that the government of Pakistan should adopt to reduce flood risks. The evaluation of these risk reduction strategies is based on specific criteria. Those criteria are gauged by Fuzzy Full Consistency Method (FUCOM). Moreover, flood risk mitigation strategies are evaluated by using Fuzzy Weighted Aggregated Sum Product Assessment (WASPAS) method, considering the previously prioritized criteria. According to results Lack of Governance, Lack of Funding and Resources, and Lack of Flood Control Infrastructure are the most significant flood intensifying factors and act as criteria for assessing flood risk mitigation strategies. Whereas Adopting Hard Engineering Strategies (Dams, Reservoirs, River Straightening & Dredging, Embankments and Flood Relief Channels), Maintaining Existing Infrastructure and Adopting Soft Engineering Strategies (Floodplain zoning, Comprehensive Flood-Risk-Assessment, Sophisticated Flood Modeling) are identified as the most viable top three flood risk mitigation strategies by Fuzzy WASPAS analysis. The highest weight i.e., 0.98 was assigned to the adoption of a hard engineering strategy. Afterwards, a weight of 0.5 was assigned to the strategy of maintaining existing infrastructure and a weight of 0.2 was assigned to the strategy of adopting soft engineering approaches. Lastly, a policy based on these strategies is also recommended to the government of Pakistan to reduce flood losses in future.