Analyzing the Contribution of Moisture Sources to Precipitation Changes Under 1.5/2.0°C Stabilized Warming Scenarios: A Study Over Northwest China

Abstract

Changes in precipitation and its causes under future warming scenarios in Northwest China are of great concern. Based on the dynamical downscaling results of the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF), this study quantitatively identified the contribution of local evaporation and external moisture transport to future precipitation changes in western and eastern Northwest China (WNWC and ENWC) by calculating the precipitation recycling ratio (PRR). The results showed that the WRF could reasonably reproduce the observed spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation and evaporation during the historical reference period of 1985–2014. Under the 1.5 and 2.0°C stabilized warming scenarios from 2071 to 2100, there is a stronger precipitation growth in WNWC than in ENWC, and the PRR generally increases in WNWC and decreases in ENWC. Further analysis indicates that external moisture transport is the dominant contributor to the increased precipitation in all cases with its contribution exceeding 70%, while the difference of precipitation growth in two sub‐regions arises from the summer moisture transport at the southern boundary as the inflow in WNWC and outflow in ENWC. Compared to the negligible contribution of evaporation in ENWC (less than 7%), evaporation contributes more than 23% to the precipitation increase in WNWC under future warming scenarios, which may be related to the strong land‐atmosphere coupling there. Furthermore, an additional warming of 0.5°C leads to an increase in precipitation for both sub‐regions, which is mainly due to the contribution of external moisture transport.