Analyzing the capacity to initiate transformative change: a methodology for assessing biodiversity strategies

Abstract

The new IPBES work programme “assessment of transformative change” aims to identify factors in human society—behavioural, social, cultural dimensions, among others—that may be leveraged to bring about transformative change. In this context and based on its scientific recommendations, the third French National Strategy for Biodiversity for 2030 (SNB3), published in 2022, aims to contribute to the implementation of France’s international commitments under the Convention on Biological Diversity and the EU’s Biodiversity Strategy for 2030. We carried out a critical assessment of the capacity of the first version of SNB3 to initiate transformative change. Firstly, we describe a two-step assessment methodology for determining the leverage potential of the strategy’s measures, based on a robust and replicable independent scientific audit and a multi-criteria analysis. Secondly, we present the main results of the assessment using the SNB3 as a case example. We confirm the scientific and practical relevance of this type of exercise for policy makers, for establishing strategies that are part of a transition process allowing for real transformative change in society. By analysing the measures and ranking them from most to least efficient, this study reveals the strengths and weaknesses of the strategy by anticipating what should have and may not have an impact, while highlighting what needs to be improved as a priority.