Analyzing dairy industry development for Ukrainian and global food security during martial law

Abstract

The study examines the development determinants of the dairy industry, a major component of global and national food security. Regarding production and trade factors affecting the whole agro-industrial complex and the dairy industry of Ukraine, the leading indicators of dairy products' availability and provision level were determined, and their dynamics were analyzed. Ukraine's dairy product consumption sufficiency indicator was defined as one of the food security criteria. It has been established that the production determinants of the dairy industry under martial law include the profitability cost level of milk production, the milking herd's number, raw milk quality and sufficiency, and the use of fodder in milk production. Trade determinants are sale opportunities, the price level for raw milk, the affordability of dairy products, and the current Ukrainian legislation in the trade sector. The developed linear multifactor model of the dairy products turnover by retail chains' dependence on the dairy products consumption level, the average monthly wage level, the inflation level and imports indicates a close relationship between the determined factors and allows to analyze the prospects of the market and the dairy industry, as GFCI components.