Analyzing Adversaries as Complex Adaptive Systems

Abstract

The task was an investigation of utility of treating terrorist groups as complex adaptive systems and thus subject to analysis using agent-based modeling technology. Mr. Mathew MacArthur also provided invaluable support to this research effort.Moreover, he provided an excellent constructive critique of the executable model developed during the course of this project.

Organizational adaptation to Complexity: A study of the South African Insurance Market as a Complex Adaptive System through Statistical Risk Analysis

“…Jervis defines a system is "a set of units or elements … interconnected so that changes in some elements or their relations produce changes in other parts of the system" [12], cited in [15]. Sanders and McCabe tells us that "Complex adaptive systems, and models thereof, are characterized by distributed organizations or networks, whose parts all influence each other, either directly or through feedback loops, which continually evolve and adapt to accomplish overarching goals" [23].…”