Analyst forecast revision consistency and reversal: Evidence of stock market efficiency

Abstract

This study reexamines the information content and market price discovery associated with individual analysts' earnings forecast revisions. We refine the definition of high‐innovation revisions as high‐innovation consistent forecast revisions and high‐innovation reversal forecast revisions. Cross‐sectional analysis shows that high‐innovation reversal good (bad) news revisions, although having larger forecast changes, cause fewer upward (downward) post‐revision price shifts than high‐innovation consistent good (bad) news revisions. We also find that the market can distinguish which group of analysts provides more useful information about firms’ true value, but it takes some time for the market to digest this useful information.