Analysis On The Regional Features of Future Warming Using High-Resolution Downscaled Multi-Model Climate Scenarios In China

Abstract

The frequency and magnitude of global warming events varies greatly across different regions and countries. The climatic diversity for China and future warming features are projected across twelve climatic zones based on the ensemble of the five well-performing high resolution downscaled climate models for each zone. There are warming patterns for the mean near surface air temperature (Tm), maximum near surface air temperature (Tmax), minimum near surface air temperature (Tmin) as well as heat stress and frost events. Under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, the three indices (i.e., Tm, Tmax and Tmin) countrywide are likely to increase at respective rates of 0.30-0.31 and 0.64-0.67 oC per decade. The extent of freezing-event extent (FE) are projected to decrease at a rate of -1912 and -4442 day·km2 per decade while the extent of heat-stress event (HE) increase at 1116 and 3557 day·km2 per decade. A higher increment in temperatures as well as a decreasing trend in the diurnal temperature range (DTR) and frost days and FE are present on the Tibetan Plateau and northern China including Xinjiang, Northeast China, the eastern part of northwest China, Inner Mongolia and North China. These trends are opposite to those projected for southern China including Huanghuai, Jianghuai, Jianghan, the south Yangzi River, South China and Southwestern China. The warming occur faster in the current colder zones (northern China and the Tibetan Plateau) while heat stress is more intense and severe in Jianghuai, Jianghan, the south Yangzi River, South China and Xinjiang. These potential changes indicate that adaption and mitigation strategies are necessary in response to future warming.