Analysis of Water Temperature Records Using A Deterministic-Stochastic Model

Neilson, Bruce J.; Hsieh, Bernard B.

doi:10.1016/s0167-5648(08)70731-7

Cited by 4 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 4 publications

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“…It is generally accepted that in extratropical regions the expected measurements of daily temperatures can be approximated to a simple harmonic representation (Rayner 1971, Aprilesi et al 1977, Neilson & Hsieh 1982, WMO 1983. In the measurements that compose time series, likely climatic changes can be also detected, the form of which can be complex (Katsoulis 1987).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of cold spells in the Greek region

Pappas¹,

Hatzianastassiou

Katsoulis

2004

Clim. Res.

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The extreme phenomenon of cold-spell events in the Greek region was investigated in this study by using a combined deterministic-stochastic model, along with 31 yr daily minimum temperature data from 16 meteorological stations of the Hellenic National Meteorological Service (HNMS). Trend analysis and the spatio-temporal distribution of cold spells were investigated by applying linear regression and Fourier analysis. The frequency, duration, distribution, timing and intensity of cold spells were successfully fitted with Poisson, Gauss and exponential distributions. The features of cold spells were found to vary widely, due to the effect of physicogeographical parameters such as latitude, longitude, altitude, and continentality, as well as to the synoptic weather situations prevailing in the various Greek sub-areas. The relative importance of the physicogeographical peculiarities was assessed: latitude and altitude were evaluated as the most important parameters for determining the features of cold spells in Greece. The highest probability of cold spells in the Greek peninsula exists when a persistent NW European and/or Siberian anticyclone reaches its highest intensity during winter and extends high-pressure ridges to the Balkans, and particularly to the Greek area.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of cold spells in the Greek region

Pappas¹,

Hatzianastassiou

Katsoulis

2004

Clim. Res.

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“…Fourier series have been popular in flood studies (Todorovic, 1978;North, 1980) but prove to be cumbersome in the number of terms included. It is common to use simple harmonics to represent the annual pattern of mean temperatures in a year (Rayner, 1971; Neilson and Hsieh, 1982). However, the rate ofcrossings is not only a function of the mean temperature but also the variance, which does not vary as regularly (Yevjevich and Obeysekera, 1985).…”

Section: P[m(t)]={exp[-a(t)]a(t)""'}/m(t)! For M(t)=012 * * * *mentioning

confidence: 99%

Statistical analysis of freezing temperatures in Central and Southern Florida

Waylen

1988

J. Climatol.

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The probability distributions of the number of freezing periods per year, their timing and severity are examined at 25 stations in southern and central Florida. The proposed distributions, derived from stochastic crossing theory, provide adequate fits with the exception of three variables at different stations. The estimated parameter values reflect the changing geography of the freeze hazard. The freeze variable that exhibits the greatest variability over the area appears to be the number of periods, while the average severity of freezes and their timings are fairly homogeneous. The theoretical basis of the method permits estimation of the distribution of the dates of first and last freezes and the distribution of the coldest temperature likely to be encountered during any period of interest. The risks of periods of extremely cold temperatures, rarely observed in the historic records, may also be obtained from those at the more commonly encountered level. The technique provides a thorough yet easily interpreted summary of cold-spell risks at any location.

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“…In extratropical regions it is generally accepted that expected measures of daily temperature may be approximated reasonably well by a simple harmonic (Woo 1973; Aprilesi et a1 1977;Neilson and Hsieh 1982). In the record there may also be evidence of longterm climatic change that can be complex in its form (Catchpole and Ball 1981).…”

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confidence: 99%

ANALYSIS and PREDICTION OF ABNORMALLY COLD SPELLS IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN

Waylen

LeBoutillier

1988

Canadian Geographies / Géographies canadiennes

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The risk of departures of daily minimum temperatures at some prescribed level below the daily average can be estimated by the use of a combined deterministic/stochastic model. From a regional perspective the coefficients and parameters of the model are point observations containing information pertaining to both regional trends and local environmental conditions. Trend surface analyses, using latitude, longitude, and elevation, provide a means of identifying the relative importance of regional and local effects on cold spell risks. The derived surfaces indicate that the deterministic components filter out the regional characteristics and that the parameters of the stochastic model are more sensitive to local changes in elevation. The efficacy of the technique is illustrated by the prediction of cold spell risks at six test sites. Le risque d'écarts des températures journalières mini‐males par rapport à un niveau prédéterminé se situant en‐dessous de la moyenne journalière peut se mesurer au moyen d'un modèle à la fois déterministe et stochas‐tique. Au plan régional, les coefficients et les paramètres du modèle sont des observ ations ponctuelles qui renfer‐ment des informations se rapportant à la fois à des tendances régionales et à des conditions locales de I'envi‐ronnement. Les analyses de tendance en surface, au moyen de latitude, longitude et altitude, constitutent une façon d'identifier l'importance relative des effets ré‐gionaux et locaux sur les risques de vagues de froid. Les surfaces qui en dérivent révèlent que les composantes déterministes font ressortir les particolarités régionales et que les paramètres du modèle stochastique sont davan‐tage sensibles aux changements locaux d'élévation. Des prévisions du risque de vague de froid, testées en six endroits, montrent I'efficacité de la technique.

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Analysis of Water Temperature Records Using A Deterministic-Stochastic Model

Cited by 4 publications

References 4 publications

Analysis of cold spells in the Greek region

Analysis of cold spells in the Greek region

Statistical analysis of freezing temperatures in Central and Southern Florida

ANALYSIS and PREDICTION OF ABNORMALLY COLD SPELLS IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN

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