Analysis of water level changes in Lake Urmia based on data characteristics and non-parametric test

Fathian, Farshad; Dehghan, Zohreh; Eslamian, Saeid

doi:10.1504/ijhst.2014.064398

Cited by 26 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 31 publications

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“…Previous work around the unfolding environmental disaster at Lake Urmia has largely focused on its water regime, water level fluctuations, ecological consequences, causes and possible actions to revive the lake (Fathian et al 2014;Tourian et al 2015;ULRP 2015;Shadkam et al 2016;Taravat et al 2016;Bavil et al 2018;Ghale et al 2017;Jeihouni et al 2017;Sanikhani et al 2017;Soudi et al 2017;Taheri et al 2019), as the need for restoration measures has sparked international attention. However, the manifold consequences of the disaster and their impact on people living in rural settlements around the lake, as well as individual or communal adaptation strategies, have barely been investigated.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Environmental degradation at Lake Urmia (Iran): exploring the causes and their impacts on rural livelihoods

2020

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During the last 20 years, Lake Urmia, once recognised as one of the largest hypersaline lakes on the planet, has suffered from severe environmental degradation. As a result of climate change and human activities, the lake has been largely desiccated. Previous work around the unfolding environmental disaster mainly focused on Lake Urmia's water regime, water level fluctuations, crisis causes and possible actions to revive its fortunes. However, there has been little discussion on the prevailing socioeconomic consequences for rural livelihoods affected by the disaster. This paper investigates the impacts of the desiccation on rural households and analyses the occurrence and different forms of local villagers' coping strategies. We present the findings of field research in the region, whereby open and semistructured interviews, with both regional experts from different institutions and local residents, were conducted. Evidence from this study suggests that rural communities near the lake are considerably dependent on the lake basin's ecosystem services, such as water availability, clean air, soil and local climate regulation-all of which are heavily threatened by progressive environmental degradation. In particular, tourism decline and losses in agriculture have already led to emigration to larger cities, presenting challenges for both rural and urban infrastructures. Overall, the vulnerability of rural households to the crisis was found to be high for reasons such as poverty, lack of income alternatives and a lack of institutional mitigation and adaptation policies.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Environmental degradation at Lake Urmia (Iran): exploring the causes and their impacts on rural livelihoods

2020

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“…The nonparametric Mann-Kendall (MK) test is applied to explore the nonstationarity behavior in water level series. To find significant change point for the water level series, the nonparametric Pettitt's test (Fathian et al 2014a), which is less sensitive to outliers, as well as segmentation software called AUG-SEGMENTER (Gedikli et al 2010;Aksoy et al 2013), which introduced as a userfriendly tool for segmentation of long time series, have been used. A change point presents an abrupt change (or a sudden change) in the statistics of the trend.…”

Section: Testing Proceduresmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…According to the some previous studies, the UL water level decline in the two most recent decades has been caused by many factors (such as changes in hydroclimatic variables, human activities, etc. ), which have resulted in many socioeconomic and ecological problems (Fathian et al 2014a). Accordingly, the timing of trends in the study factors began in the 1990s, and generally there is a significant relationship among them (Hassanzadeh et al 2012).…”

Section: Statistical Comparison Of the Ul Water Levelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Since 1967 it has been considered as a wetland protected region, in 1971 the Ramsar convention declared it as an important international wetland, and in 1976 it designated as a UNESCO biosphere reserve (Fathian et al 2014a;Vaheddoost and Aksoy 2016). The region's industrial and agricultural sectors have been jeopardized and the vibrant and vivid lake has experienced underwater buried salt exposure due to the water level decline in recent years (Eimanifar and Mohebbi 2007;Fathian et al 2014b).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Furthermore, various studies have been done in modeling and statistical analysis of water level fluctuations in different lakes over the world, specifically for UL of Iran (See Jones et al 2001;Kebede et al 2006;Ç imen and Kisi 2009;Yin and Yang 2012;Kavehkar et al 2011;Kakahaji et al 2013). Modeling water level series of UL, as a continuing worry in water resources management and hydrological researches, can help in reducing the damages (Kebede et al 2006;Fathian et al 2014a). Therefore, it is necessary to build and develop a suitable model for simulating water level changes.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Urmia Lake water-level change detection and modeling

Fathian

Modarres

Dehghan

2016

Model. Earth Syst. Environ.

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This study suggests a different view of the change in water level fluctuation of Urmia Lake (UL), Northwestern Iran, and its descriptive statistics in term of the seasonal variation of monthly average time series during . A significant change is demonstrated in the descriptive statistical characteristics, such as the mean and the variance after a change point in 1999 by nonparametric techniques. Therefore, two models namely, mono-and multiple-time trend (Mono-and Multiple-TT), are applied to remove trends observed in the UL water level. In case of Mono-TT model, the trend assessment of water level exhibit downward trend significantly. In case of Multiple-trend model, the time series is divided into before and after change point subseries and a linear time trend model is fitted to each subseries. The results showed a significant increasing and decreasing trend, respectively. Furthermore, this paper have developed hybrid time series models including Seasonal Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) fitted to detrended values by Mono-and Multiple-TT models. The criteria evaluation demonstrates the adequacy of SARIMA, Mono-and Multiple-TT-SARIMA models and their combination with GARCH approach for modeling monthly water level which have significant trends. The GARCH models indicate the existence of short-run persistency in the water level. The proposed SARIMA and Mono-TT-SARIMA and their combination with the GARCH models are found useful for modeling the water level with significant trends.

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Interactions Between Changing Climates and Land Uses: The Case of Urmia Lake, Iran

Ghanian¹,

Ghoochani²,

Mohammadzadeh³

et al. 2023

Indigenous and Local Water Knowledge, Values and Practices

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Iran is experiencing rapid population growth coupled with the negative impacts of global warming and land-use change. These impacts pose significant challenges for water managers and planners trying to match supply and demand. The twin challenges of land-use management and planning for climate change are exemplified in the case of Lake Urmia-situated in a closed basin in northwestern Iran. The basin supports agriculture from water stored in several reservoirs. Lake Urmia was once the largest saltwater lake in the Middle East and North Africa. It has recently become an environmental concern due to shrinking by 80% within the last 30 years. The dropping water level is exacerbated by a combination of declining precipitation and land conversion practices. Water loss provokes severe socioenvironmental consequences (including chronic health impacts, child mortality risks, and agricultural threats) that are similar in magnitude to those seen in the Kazakhstan-Uzbekistan Aral Sea disaster. This chapter explores the interactions M. Ghanian (✉)

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Analysis of water level changes in Lake Urmia based on data characteristics and non-parametric test

Cited by 26 publications

References 31 publications

Environmental degradation at Lake Urmia (Iran): exploring the causes and their impacts on rural livelihoods

Environmental degradation at Lake Urmia (Iran): exploring the causes and their impacts on rural livelihoods

Urmia Lake water-level change detection and modeling

Interactions Between Changing Climates and Land Uses: The Case of Urmia Lake, Iran

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