Analysis of twenty-week time-series of confirmed cases of New Coronavirus COVID-19 and their simple short-term prediction for Georgia and Neighboring Countries (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Turkey, Russia) in amid of a global pandemic

2021

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In the autumn - winter period of 2020, very difficult situation arose in Georgia with the course of the pandemic of the New Coronavirus COVID-19. In particular, in November-December period of 2020, Georgia eight days was rank a first in the world in terms of COVID-19 infection rate per 1 million populations. In this work results of a statistical analysis of the daily data associated with New Coronavirus COVID-19 infection of confirmed (C), recovered (R), deaths (D) and infection rate (I) cases of the population of Georgia in the period from September 01, 2020 to February 28, 2021 (for I - from December 05, 2020 to February 28, 2021) are presented. It also presents the results of the analysis of ten-day (decade) and two-week forecasting of the values of C, D and I, the information was regularly sent to the National Center for Disease Control & Public Health of Georgia and posted on the Facebook page https://www.facebook.com/Avtandil1948/. The analysis of data is carried out with the use of the standard statistical analysis methods of random events and methods of mathematical statistics for the non-accidental time-series of observations. In particular, the following results were obtained. Georgia's ranking in the world for Covid-19 infection and deaths from September 1, 2020 to February 28, 2021 (per 1 million population) was determined. Georgia was in the first place: Infection - November 21, 22, 27, 28 and December 04, 05, 06, 09, 2020; Death - November 22, 2020. A comparison between the daily mortality from Covid-19 in Georgia from September 1, 2020 to February 28, 2021 with the average daily mortality rate in 2015-2019 was made. The largest share value of D from mean death in 2015-2019 was 36.9% (19.12.2020), the smallest - 0.9% (21.09.2020, 24.09.2020 - 26.09.2020). The statistical analysis of the daily and decade data associated with coronavirus COVID-19 pandemic of confirmed, recovered, deaths cases and infection rate of the population of Georgia are carried out. Maximum daily values of investigation parameters are following: C = 5450 (05.12.2020), R = 4599 (21.12.2020), D = 53 (19.12.2020), I = 30.1 % (05.12.2020). Maximum mean decade values of investigation parameters are following: C = 4337 (1 Decade of December 2020), R = 3605 (3 Decade of November 2020), D = 44 (2 Decade of December 2020), I = 26.8 % (1 Decade of December 2020). It was found that the regression equations for the time variability of the daily values of C, R and D have the form of a tenth order polynomial. Mean values of speed of change of confirmed -V(C), recovered - V(R) and deaths - V(D) coronavirus-related cases in different decades of months from September 2020 to February 2021 were determined. Maximum mean decade values of investigation parameters are following: V(C) = +104 cases/day (1 Decade of November 2020), V(R) = +94 cases/day (3 Decade of October and 1 Decade of November 2020), V(D) = +0.9 cases/day (1 Decade of November 2020). Cross-correlations analysis between confirmed COVID-19 cases with recovered and deaths cases from 05.12.2020 to 28.02.2021 is carried out. So, the maximum effect of recovery is observed 13-14 days after infection, and deaths - after 13-14 and 17-18 days. The scale of comparing real data with the predicted ones and assessing the stability of the time series of observations in the forecast period in relation to the pre-predicted one was offered. Comparison of real and calculated predictions data of C (23.09.2020-28.02.2021), D (01.01.2021-28.02.2021) and I (01.02.2021-28.02.2021) in Georgia are carried out. It was found that daily, mean decade and two-week real values of C, D and I practically falls into the 67% - 99.99% confidence interval of these predicted values for the specified time periods (except the forecast of C for 13.10.2020-22.10.2020, when a nonlinear process of growth of C values was observed and its real values have exceeded 99.99% of the upper level of the confidence interval of forecast). Alarming deterioration with the spread of coronavirus parameters may arise when their daily values are higher 99.99% of upper level of the forecast confidence interval. Excellent improvement - when these daily values are below 99.99% of the lower level of the forecast confidence interval. The lockdown introduced in Georgia on November 28, 2020 brought positive results. There are clearly positive tendencies in the spread of COVID-19 to February 2021. Key words: New Coronavirus COVID-19, statistical analysis, short-term prediction.

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 88%

The statistical analysis of daily data associated with different parameters of the New Coronavirus COVID-19 pandemic in Georgia and their short-term interval prediction from September 2020 to February 2021

2021

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“…The calculation of the interval prognostic values of C, D and I taking into account the periodicity in the time-series of observations was carried out using Excel 16 (the calculate methodology was description in [7]). The duration of time series of observations for calculating ten-day and two-week forecasts of the values of C, D and I was 35 -92 days.…”

Section: Study Areas Materials and Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This work is a continuation of the researches [6][7][8]. In this work results of a statistical analysis of the daily data associated with New Coronavirus COVID-19 infection of confirmed (C), recovered (R), deaths (D) and infection rate (I) cases of the population of Georgia in the period from March 01, 2021 to May 31, 2021 are presented.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 94%

“…Until now, despite the measures taken, the overall level of morbidity and mortality remains quite high. During this time, together with epidemiologists, scientists and specialists from various disciplines from all over the world have joined intensive research on this unprecedented phenomenon (including Georgia [2][3][4][5][6][7][8]).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In particular, in our works [6][7][8] it was noted that specialists in the field of physical and mathematical sciences make an important contribution to research on the spread of the new coronavirus COVID-19. Work on systematization, statistical analysis, forecasting, spatial-temporal modeling of the spread of the new coronavirus is being actively continued at the present time [9-15, etc.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The statistical analysis of daily data associated with different parameters of the New Coronavirus COVID-19 pandemic in Georgia and their short-term interval prediction in spring 2021

2021

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The lockdown introduced in Georgia on November 28, 2020 brought positive results. There are clearly positive tendencies in the spread of COVID-19 to February - first half of March 2021. However, in April-May 2021 there was a significant deterioration in the epidemiological situation. In this work results of the next statistical analysis of the daily data associated with New Coronavirus COVID-19 infection of confirmed (C), recovered (R), deaths (D) and infection rate (I) cases of the population of Georgia in the period from March 01, 2021 to May 31, 2021 are presented. It also presents the results of the analysis of two-week forecasting of the values of C, D and I. The information was regularly sent to the National Center for Disease Control & Public Health of Georgia and posted on the Facebook page https://www.facebook.com/Avtandil1948/. The analysis of data is carried out with the use of the standard statistical analysis methods of random events and methods of mathematical statistics for the non-accidental time-series of observations. In particular, the following results were obtained. Georgia's ranking in the world for Covid-19 monthly mean values of infection and deaths cases in spring 2021 (per 1 million population) was determined. Among 156 countries with population ≥ 1 million inhabitants in May 2021 Georgia was in the 11 place on new infection cases and in the 14 place on Death. A comparison between the daily mortality from Covid-19 in Georgia in spring 2021 with the average daily mortality rate in 2015-2019 shows, that the largest share value of D from mean death in 2015-2019 was 25.3 % (22.05.2021), the smallest 1.42 % (15.03.2021). Data about infection rate of the population of Georgia with Covid-19 according to traffic light system shown, that Georgia in April and May 2021 was in the red zone. The statistical analysis of the daily and decade data associated with coronavirus COVID-19 pandemic of confirmed, recovered, deaths cases and infection rate of the population of Georgia are carried out. Maximum daily values of investigation parameters are following: C = 2171 (05.05.2021), R = 2038 (17.05.2021), D = 33 (22.05.2021), I = 8.05 % (04.05.2020). Maximum mean decade values of investigation parameters are following: C = 1258 (3 Decade of April 2021), R = 1283 (2 Decade of May 2021), D = 24 (2 Decade of May 2021), I = 6.54 % (1 Decade of May 2021). It was found that as with September 2020 to February 2021 [8], in spring 2021 the regression equations for the time variability of the daily values of C, R and D have the form of a tenth order polynomial. Mean values of speed of change of confirmed -V(C), recovered - V(R), deaths - V(D) and infection rate V(I) coronavirus-related cases in different decades of months in the spring 2021 were determined. Maximum mean decade values of investigation parameters are following: V(C) = +37 cases/day (1 Decade of April 2021), V(R) = +36 cases/day (3 Decade of April 2021), V(D) = +0.6 cases/day (3 Decade of April 2021), V(I) = + 0.17 %/ day (2 and 3 decades of April 2021). Cross-correlations analysis between confirmed COVID-19 cases with recovered and deaths cases shows, that the maximum effect of recovery is observed 9 and 13 days after infection, and deaths - after 12-17 days. Comparison of real and calculated predictions data of C, D and I in Georgia are carried out. It was found that two-week daily and mean two-week real values of C, D and I practically fall into the 67% - 99.99% confidence interval of these predicted values for the specified time periods. The comparison of data about C and D in Georgia (GEO) with similar data in Armenia (ARM), Azerbaijan (AZE), Russia (RUS), Turkey (TUR) and in the World (WRL) is also carried out. Key words: New Coronavirus COVID-19, statistical analysis, short-term prediction.

The statistical analysis of daily data associated with different parameters of the New Coronavirus COVID-19 pandemic in Georgia and their two-week interval prediction in summer 2021

2021

Preprint

Self Cite

The lockdown introduced in Georgia on November 28, 2020 brought positive results. There were clearly positive tendencies in the spread of COVID-19 to February - first half of March 2021. However, in April-May 2021 there was a significant deterioration in the epidemiological situation. From June to August 2021, the epidemiological situation with Covid-19 in Georgia became very difficult. In this work results of the next statistical analysis of the daily data associated with New Coronavirus COVID-19 infection of confirmed (C), recovered (R), deaths (D) and infection rate (I) cases of the population of Georgia in the period from June 01, 2021 to August 31, 2021 are presented. It also presents the results of the analysis of two-week forecasting of the values of C, D and I. As earlier, the information was regularly sent to the National Center for Disease Control & Public Health of Georgia and posted on the Facebook page https://www.facebook.com/Avtandil1948/. The analysis of data is carried out with the use of the standard statistical analysis methods of random events and methods of mathematical statistics for the non-accidental time-series of observations. In particular, the following results were obtained. Georgia's ranking in the world for Covid-19 monthly mean values of infection and deaths cases in summer 2021 (per 1 million population) was determined. Among 159 countries with population ≥ 1 million inhabitants in August 2021 Georgia was in the 1 place on new infection cases and on Death. A comparison between the daily mortality from Covid-19 in Georgia in summer 2021 with the average daily mortality rate in 2015-2019 shows, that the largest share value of D from mean death in 2015-2019 was 66.0 % (26.08.2021 and 31.08.2021), the smallest 6.0 % (09.07.2021). The statistical analysis of the daily and decade data associated with coronavirus COVID-19 pandemic of confirmed, recovered, deaths cases and infection rate of the population of Georgia are carried out. Maximum daily values of investigation parameters are following: C = 6208 (17.08.2021), R = 6177 (29.08.2021), D = 79 (26.08.2021 and 31.08.2021), I = 13.0 % (17.08.2021). Maximum mean decade values of investigation parameters are following: C = 5019 (2 Decade of August 2021), R = 4822 (3 Decade of August 2021), D = 69 (3 Decade of August 2021), I = 10.88 % (2 Decade of August 2021). It was found that as with September 2020 to February 2021 and in spring 2021 [7,8], from June to August 2021 the regression equations for the time variability of the daily values of C, R and D have the form of a tenth order polynomial. Mean values of speed of change of confirmed -V(C), recovered - V(R), deaths - V(D) and infection rate V(I) coronavirus-related cases in different decades of months in the summer 2021 were determined. Maximum mean decade values of investigation parameters are following: V(C) = +134 cases/day (1 Decade of August 2021), V(R) = +134 cases/day (2 Decade of August 2021), V(D) = +2.4 cases/day (3 Decade of August 2021), V(I) = + 0.25 %/ day (1 decades of August 2021). Cross-correlations analysis between confirmed COVID-19 cases with recovered and deaths cases shows, that the maximum effect of recovery is observed 19 days after infection (RC=0.95), and deaths - after 16 and 18 days (RC=0.94). In Georgia in the summer 2021, the duration of the impact of the delta variant of the coronavirus on people (recovery, mortality) could be up to two months. Comparison of real and calculated predictions data of C, D and I in Georgia are carried out. It was found that in summer 2021 two-week daily and mean two-week real values of C, D and I practically fall into the 67% - 99.99% confidence interval of these predicted values. With September 1, 2021, it is started monthly forecasting of C, D and I values. As earlier, the comparison of data about C and D in Georgia (GEO) with similar data in Armenia (ARM), Azerbaijan (AZE), Russia (RUS), Turkey (TUR) and in the World (WRL) is also carried out.