Analysis of the Role of Dispersion of Rural Settlements against Natural Hazards in South Khorasan Province

Abstract

INTRODUCTION: Identification of the settlements located in high-risk zones in terms of natural hazards is one of the first steps in risk management and development planning. This study aimed to identify villages exposed to earthquakes and floods in South Khorasan province. METHODS: The present study used the Analytic Hierarchy Process method to evaluate the validity and reliability of measuring instruments through exploratory factor analysis. Since the value of the KMO index was 0.879, the number of samples was sufficient for analysis. Moreover, the significance of the Bartlett test was less than 5% and Cronbach's alpha coefficient was obtained at 0.856; accordingly, the questionnaire was reliable. FINDINGS: Based on the spatial analysis of the seismic vulnerability, 214 and 502 villages were in the zone of very high and high vulnerability, respectively. Moreover, the results of flood vulnerability showed that the southern and northwestern parts of South Khorasan province had the lowest vulnerability. The number of villages located in the very high vulnerable zone was very limited and included only seven villages of Chenesht, Kalateh Abbas, Takti Ti, Tangel Behdan, Ebru, Khankuk, and Ostan Siah, which are located in the east of the province. CONCLUSION: Based on the integrated results of two hazards (i.e., earthquakes and floods), it is observed that 523 rural settlements are in a very high-risk zone, which accounts for 14.7% of the total settlements in the South Khorasan province, compared to the total rural settlements. Furthermore, the highest dispersion frequency of rural settlements is in the zone of moderate vulnerability. This zone with 1,344 settlements includes about 37.7% of the total settlements in the province