Analysis of the probability of failure for open-grown trees during wind storms

Ciftci, Cihan; Arwade, Sanjay R.; Kane, Brian; Breña, Sergio F.

doi:10.1016/j.probengmech.2014.04.002

Cited by 30 publications

(31 citation statements)

References 40 publications

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“…Poulos and Camp (2010) found tall slender trees with larger proportions of their height being live crown were the most likely to fail. In contrast, Ciftci (2014), in calculating failure probabilities for open grown trees, found that trees with greater crown volume to be more stable, owing to the damping effect of more branches. Wind-throw is also related to both the constant wind speed and wind turbulence (England et al, 2000), however, studies have not agreed that variation in wind influences FVF (Webb et al, 2013).…”

Section: Drivers Of Fundamental Vibrational Frequencymentioning

confidence: 92%

“…Studies predicting windthrow, while still most often developed for coniferous plantations, have also investigated deciduous species, mixes of species and real dynamic wind forces (Poulos and Camp, 2010;Nolet et al, 2012;Ciftci et al, 2014). Because sway is an important indicator of resistance to wind-throw, predictive factors found in these studies are also likely related to FVF.…”

Section: Drivers Of Fundamental Vibrational Frequencymentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Determinants of tree sway frequency in temperate deciduous forests of the Northeast United States

Bunce

Volin

Miller

et al. 2019

Agricultural and Forest Meteorology

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Section: Drivers Of Fundamental Vibrational Frequencymentioning

confidence: 92%

Section: Drivers Of Fundamental Vibrational Frequencymentioning

confidence: 99%

Determinants of tree sway frequency in temperate deciduous forests of the Northeast United States

Bunce

Volin

Miller

et al. 2019

Agricultural and Forest Meteorology

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“…Certain cultivars (e.g., Bradford pear) have growth forms that make them highly susceptible to wind damage. Pruning can reduce wind loading and increase wind resistance if done properly (Ciftci et al 2014, Smiley and Kane 2006.…”

Section: Wind Damagementioning

confidence: 99%

Chicago Wilderness region urban forest vulnerability assessment and synthesis: a report from the Urban Forestry Climate Change Response Framework Chicago Wilderness pilot project

Brandt¹,

Lewis²,

Scott³

et al. 2017

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The urban forest of the Chicago Wilderness region, a 7-million-acre area covering portions of Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, and Wisconsin, will face direct and indirect impacts from a changing climate over the 21 st century. This assessment evaluates the vulnerability of urban trees and natural and developed landscapes within the Chicago Wilderness region to a range of future climates. We synthesized and summarized information on the contemporary landscape, provided information on past climate trends, and illustrated a range of projected future climates. We used this information to inform models of habitat suitability for trees native to the area. Projected shifts in plant hardiness and heat zones were used to understand how nonnative species and cultivars may tolerate future conditions. We also assessed the adaptability of planted and naturally occurring trees to stressors that may not be accounted for in habitat suitability models such as drought, flooding, wind damage, and air pollution.The summary of the contemporary landscape identifies major stressors currently threatening the urban forest of the Chicago Wilderness region. Major current threats to the region's urban forest include invasive species, pests and disease, land-use change, development, and fragmentation. Observed trends in climate over the historical record from 1901 through 2011 show a temperature increase of 1 °F in the Chicago Wilderness region. Precipitation increased as well, especially during the summer. Mean annual temperature is projected to increase by 2.3 to 8.2 °F by the end of the century, with temperature increases across all seasons. Projections for precipitation show an increase in winter and spring precipitation, and summer and fall precipitation projections vary by model. Species distribution modeling for native species suggests that suitable habitat may decrease for 11 primarily northern species and increase or become newly suitable for 40 species. An analysis of tree species vulnerability that combines model projections, shifts in hardiness and heat zones, and adaptive capacity showed that 15 percent of the trees currently present in the region have either moderate-high or high vulnerability to climate change, and many of those trees with low vulnerability are invasive species.We developed a process for self-assessment of urban forest vulnerability that was tested by urban forestry professionals from four municipalities, three park districts, and three forest preserve districts in the region. The professionals generally rated the impacts of climate change on the places they managed as moderately negative, mostly driven by the potential effects of extreme storms and heavy precipitation on trees in the area. The capacity of forests to adapt to climate change ranged widely based on economic, social, and organizational factors, as well as on the diversity of species and genotypes of trees in the area. These projected changes in climate and their associated impacts and vulnerabilities will have important implications for urb...

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“…Storms affecting the distribution network can have a wide range of weather attributes (e.g., heavy snow or rain) that interact with overlying vegetation, and can have differing impact on the outage magnitude and frequency depending on the tree‐leaf condition. For example, high winds usually have a greater impact on trees with leaves due to increased wind loading . To capture this dynamic, we grouped our data by season (Table ), which resulted in separate fits for each of the three different seasonal categories.…”

Section: Study Area and Data Descriptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For example, high winds usually have a greater impact on trees with leaves due to increased wind loading. (14,15) To capture this dynamic, we grouped our data by season (Table I), which resulted in separate fits for each of the three different seasonal categories. Of the 89 storm events in our data set, there were 38 storms and 1 hurricane (Irene) during the summer (leaves on) months (June to September); there were 24 storms and 1 hurricane (Sandy) during the spring and fall (transition) months (October, November, April, and May); and there were 25 storms during the winter (leaves off) months (December to March).…”

Section: Seasonal Categorizationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Nonparametric Tree‐Based Predictive Modeling of Storm Outages on an Electric Distribution Network

Wanik

Hartman

et al. 2016

Risk Analysis

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This article compares two nonparametric tree-based models, quantile regression forests (QRF) and Bayesian additive regression trees (BART), for predicting storm outages on an electric distribution network in Connecticut, USA. We evaluated point estimates and prediction intervals of outage predictions for both models using high-resolution weather, infrastructure, and land use data for 89 storm events (including hurricanes, blizzards, and thunderstorms). We found that spatially BART predicted more accurate point estimates than QRF. However, QRF produced better prediction intervals for high spatial resolutions (2-km grid cells and towns), while BART predictions aggregated to coarser resolutions (divisions and service territory) more effectively. We also found that the predictive accuracy was dependent on the season (e.g., tree-leaf condition, storm characteristics), and that the predictions were most accurate for winter storms. Given the merits of each individual model, we suggest that BART and QRF be implemented together to show the complete picture of a storm's potential impact on the electric distribution network, which would allow for a utility to make better decisions about allocating prestorm resources.

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Analysis of the probability of failure for open-grown trees during wind storms

Cited by 30 publications

References 40 publications

Determinants of tree sway frequency in temperate deciduous forests of the Northeast United States

Determinants of tree sway frequency in temperate deciduous forests of the Northeast United States

Chicago Wilderness region urban forest vulnerability assessment and synthesis: a report from the Urban Forestry Climate Change Response Framework Chicago Wilderness pilot project

Nonparametric Tree‐Based Predictive Modeling of Storm Outages on an Electric Distribution Network

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