Analysis of the marine traffic safety in the Gulf of Finland

Kujala, Pentti; Hänninen, Maria; Arola, Tommi; Ylitalo, Jutta

doi:10.1016/j.ress.2009.02.028

Cited by 229 publications

(126 citation statements)

References 10 publications

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“…Practical implementation of the results of the sensitivity function calculations enables development of solutions to better integrate the results of the growing body of research focused on the maritime traffic risk modeling [38] and the maritime accidents related to the ecological risk assessment [35]. Multiplication of the sensitivity function by the function describing probability of maritime traffic accidents related to marine environment pollution allows construction of a "risk map" with respect to potential pollution of the Tallinn-Helsinki protected area.…”

Section: Results Of Numerical Experiments For Assessment Of Marine Pomentioning

confidence: 99%

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Numerical Modeling of Marine Circulation, Pollution Assessment and Optimal Ship Routes

Zalesny

Agoshkov

Aps

et al. 2017

JMSE

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Methods and technology have been developed to solve a wide range of problems in the dynamics of sea currents and to assess their "impact" on objects in the marine environment. Technology can be used for monitoring and forecasting sea currents, for solving the problems of minimizing risks and analyzing marine disasters associated with the choice of the optimal course of the ship, and assessing the pollution of coastal zones, etc. The technology includes a numerical model of marine circulation with improved resolution of coastal zones, a method for solving the inverse problem of contamination of the sea with a passive impurity, and a variational algorithm for constructing the optimal trajectory of the vessel. The methods and technology are illustrated by solving problems of Baltic Sea dynamics. The model of sea dynamics is governed by primitive equations that are solved on a grid with an improved resolution of the selected coastal zone-in this case, the Gulf of Finland. The equations of the model are formulated in a bipolar orthogonal coordinate system with an arbitrary arrangement of poles and the sigma coordinate in the vertical direction. An increase in the horizontal resolution of the allocated zone is achieved due to the displacement of the north pole in the vicinity of the city of St. Petersburg. A class of dangerous technogenic situations and natural phenomena (sea accidents, which can be investigated with the help of the proposed methodology), includes tanker accidents in the case of a possible collision with a stationary object (with "dynamic danger") or a moving object (including another ship), accidents on oil-producing platforms and oil pipelines, and coastal pollution.

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Section: Results Of Numerical Experiments For Assessment Of Marine Pomentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Note that in specific practical problems the probability density f (x) may be calculated on the base of data related to probabilities of dangerous events in the sea (see, e.g., [30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43]). …”

Section: Risk Theory-based Ship Routing Problemmentioning

confidence: 99%

Numerical Modeling of Marine Circulation, Pollution Assessment and Optimal Ship Routes

Zalesny

Agoshkov

Aps

et al. 2017

JMSE

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“…Ship collision frequency. In order to evaluate the ship collision frequency, the causation probability values which are commonly accepted in the existing studies (e.g., Pedersen, 2002;Kujala et al, 2009) are used in this study. More specifically, the three causation probability values are 1·30 × 10 −4 for crossing encounters, 4·90 × 10 −5 for overtaking encounters and 4·90 × 10 −5 for head-on encounters, respectively.…”

Section: S H I P C O L L I S I O N F R E Qu E N C Y E S T I M At I O mentioning

confidence: 99%

Ship Collision Frequency Estimation in Port Fairways: A Case Study

Weng

Xue

2015

J. Navigation

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This study aims to evaluate ship collision frequency in port fairways. One case study is created using one month's real-time ship movement data from five major Singapore port fairways. Results show that tankers account for the biggest proportion in the Temasek fairway, whereas the percentage of Roll-on-Roll-Off (RORO) and passenger ships is quite small in the Temasek fairway, Sinki fairway, Jong fairway and Southern fairway. Tankers and container ships are the two major ship types involved in dangerous encounters. The largest number of dangerous head-on and overtaking encounters is located in the Jong fairway. The majority of dangerous crossing encounters have occurred in the West Keppel fairway and Jong fairway. Ship collision frequency at night is found to be significantly higher than during the day in these fairways. K E Y WO R D S 1. Marine traffic.2. Safety. 3. Ship.

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“…Distribution of ships' speeds, total area studied. Fujii et al, 1974;Fowler and Sørgård, 2000;Otto et al, 2002;Rosqvist et al, 2002;Kujala et al, 2009;Hänninen and Kujala, 2010;Montewka et al, 2010).…”

Section: R I S K O F S H I P -S H I P Co L L I S I O N O F F T H E Pomentioning

confidence: 99%

Use of AIS Data to Characterise Marine Traffic Patterns and Ship Collision Risk off the Coast of Portugal

Silveira¹,

Teixeira²,

Soares³

2013

J. Navigation

255

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This paper studies the risk of ship collision off the coast of Portugal based on Automatic Identification System (AIS) data, which is recorded and maintained by the Portuguese coastal Vessel Traffic Service (VTS) control centre (CCTMC). Computer programs for decoding, visualization and analysis of the AIS data have been developed. From analysis of the AIS data available, maritime traffic off the coast of Portugal is characterized and a statistical analysis of traffic in the Traffic Separation Schemes is provided. An algorithm has been developed to assess the risk profile and the relative importance of routes associated with ports. A method is proposed to calculate the collision risk from the assessment of the number of collision candidates by estimating future distances between ships based on their previous positions, courses and speeds, and comparing those distances with a defined collision diameter. Values of causation probability suggested in several studies are used to calculate the expected number of collisions in the period of time under investigation based on the number of collision candidates. The results of this study are then compared with the number of collisions that have occurred between 1997-2006, registered

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Analysis of the marine traffic safety in the Gulf of Finland

Cited by 229 publications

References 10 publications

Numerical Modeling of Marine Circulation, Pollution Assessment and Optimal Ship Routes

Numerical Modeling of Marine Circulation, Pollution Assessment and Optimal Ship Routes

Ship Collision Frequency Estimation in Port Fairways: A Case Study

Use of AIS Data to Characterise Marine Traffic Patterns and Ship Collision Risk off the Coast of Portugal

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