Analysis of the Influencing Factors of Drought Events Based on GRACE Data under Different Climatic Conditions: A Case Study in Mainland China

Cui, Lilu; Cheng, Zhanwen; Yao, Chaolong; Luo, Zhicai; Wang, Xiaolong; Li, Qiong

doi:10.3390/w13182575

Cited by 16 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 47 publications

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“…This may be related to the main stream of the Mekong River flowing through this region. The annual runoff of this river ranks ninth in the world, and runoff is an important part of TWSC [40]. From Figure 8d, we found that, similar to TWSC, PPT and ET, only regions NW and S have significant change trends in burned areas.…”

Section: Long-term Trend Changementioning

confidence: 79%

“…The degree-1 coefficients have been replaced using the results from Swenson et al [39]. To minimize the effects of high-frequency and correlated errors, the combined filtering (300 km Fan filter and de-striping method P3M6) has been applied for smoothing the SH solutions [40]. To reduce the signal attenuation effect caused by order truncation and filter smoothing, the GRACE TWSC data was corrected by using the scale factor approach [41].…”

Section: Grace Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Since PPT and ET of Yunnan are affected by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole [40,54], we included the above two extreme climates into the analysis scope when studying the influence of climate change on forest fires in Yunnan. The monthly Niño 3.4 index data indicate the magnitude of ENSO, which is provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).…”

Section: Extreme Climate Indexmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…When DMI is negative, as the sea temperature of East Indian Ocean increased, the water vapor transport from the Bay of Bengal weakened, resulting in a decrease in PPT in Southwest China (including Yunnan) [68]. Similarly, when the La Ninã event happened (ENSO is negative), due to the strengthening of East Asian monsoon, the PPT belt moved northward, resulting in less PPT in Southwest China [40,69]. When ENSO events and Indian Ocean Dipoles appeared together, low PPT was strengthened [70].…”

Section: Climate Change Before and During Extreme Forest Fire Monthsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The Influence of Climate Change on Forest Fires in Yunnan Province, Southwest China Detected by GRACE Satellites

et al. 2022

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Yunnan province in China has rich forest resources but high forest fire frequency. Therefore, a better understanding of the relationship between climate change and forest fires in this region is important for forest fire prevention. This study used the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) terrestrial water storage change (TWSC) data to analyze the influence of climate change on forest fires in the region during 2003–2016. To improve the accuracy and reliability of GRACE TWSC data, we used the generalized three-cornered hat (GTCH) and the least square method to fuse TWSC data from six GRACE solutions. The spatiotemporal variation of forest fires during 2003–2016 was investigated using burned area data. Then, the relationship between burned area and hydrological and climatic factors was analyzed. The results indicate that more than 90% of burned areas are located in northwestern and southern Yunnan (NW and S). On the seasonal scale, forest fires are mainly concentrated in January–April (dry season) and the burned area is negatively correlated with precipitation (correlation coefficient r = −0.83 (NW) and −0.51 (S)), relative humidity (r = −0.79 (NW) and −0.92 (S)), GRACE TWSC (r = −0.57 (NW) and −0.73 (S)) and evapotranspiration (r = −0.90 (NW) and −0.35 (S)). However, the burned area has no significant correlations with the above four factors on the interannual scale. The composite analysis suggests that the extreme climate affects precipitation, evapotranspiration and TWSC in this region, thereby changing water storage of the air in this region, leading to the formation of an environment prone to forest fires. Such conditions have led to an increase in the burned area in the above region. We also found that the difference between TWSC in high- and low-fire years is much greater than the precipitation in the same period. The above results show that GRACE satellites can detect the influence of climate change on forest fires in Yunnan province.

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Section: Long-term Trend Changementioning

confidence: 79%

Section: Grace Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Extreme Climate Indexmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Climate Change Before and During Extreme Forest Fire Monthsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The Influence of Climate Change on Forest Fires in Yunnan Province, Southwest China Detected by GRACE Satellites

et al. 2022

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“…In particular, the global warming trend has intensified, leading to frequent extreme disasters (flood and drought) around the world. Previous studies [8][9][10] indicate the precipitation (PPT) and evapotranspiration (ET) are the main driving factors of the regional water cycle as well as the important factors leading to regional TWSC. Anyah et al [11] analyzed the relationship between TWSC in Africa and five climate indices during the period 2003-2012, and the results show that there is a significant correlation between the above natural indices and TWSC.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Natural- and Human-Induced Influences on Terrestrial Water Storage Change in Sichuan, Southwest China from 2003 to 2020

Cui

Zhu

et al. 2022

Remote Sensing

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A quantitative understanding of changes in water resources is crucial for local governments to enable timely decision-making to maintain water security. Here, we quantified natural-and human-induced influences on the terrestrial water storage change (TWSC) in Sichuan, Southwest China, with intensive water consumption and climate variability, based on the data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and its Follow-on (GRACE-FO) during 2003–2020. We combined the TWSC estimates derived from six GRACE/GRACE-FO solutions based on the uncertainties of each solution estimated from the generalized three-cornered hat method. Metrics of correlation coefficient and contribution rate (CR) were used to evaluate the influence of precipitation, evapotranspiration, runoff, reservoir storage, and total water consumption on TWSC in the entire region and its five economic regions. The results showed that a significant improvement in the fused TWSC was found compared to those derived from a single model. The increase in regional water storage with a rate of 3.83 ± 0.54 mm/a was more influenced by natural factors (CR was 53.17%) compared to human influence (CR was 46.83%). Among the factors, the contribution of reservoir storage was the largest (CR was 42.32%) due to the rapid increase in hydropower stations, followed by precipitation (CR was 35.16%), evapotranspiration (CR was 15.86%), total water consumption (CR was 4.51%), and runoff (CR was 2.15%). Among the five economic regions, natural influence on Chengdu Plain was the highest (CR was 48.21%), while human influence in Northwest Sichuan was the largest (CR was 61.37%). The highest CR of reservoir storage to TWSC was in Northwest Sichuan (61.11%), while the highest CRs of precipitation (35.16%) and evapotranspiration (15.86%) were both in PanXi region. The results suggest that TWSC in Sichuan is affected by natural factors and intense human activities, in particular, the effect of reservoir storage on TWSC is very significant. Our study results can provide beneficial help for the management and assessment of regional water resources.

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A Novel Standardized Drought and Flood Potential Index Based on Reconstructed Daily GRACE Data

Xiong

Guo

Abhishek

et al. 2022

Journal of Hydrometeorology

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Multiple indicators derived from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite have been used in monitoring floods and droughts. However, these measures are constrained by the relatively short time span (∼20 years) and coarse temporal resolution (1 month) of the GRACE and GRACE Follow-On missions, and the inherent decay mechanism of the land surface system has not been considered. Here we reconstructed the daily GRACE-like terrestrial water storage anomaly (TWSA) in the Yangtze River basin (YRB) during 1961–2015 based on the Institute of Geodesy at Graz University of Technology (ITSG)-Grace2018 solution using the random forest (RF) model. A novel antecedent metric, namely, standardized drought and flood potential index (SDFPI), was developed using reconstructed TWSA, observed precipitation, and modeled evapotranspiration. The potential of SDFPI was evaluated against in situ discharge, VIC simulations, and several widely used indices such as total storage deficit index (TSDI), self-calibrated Palmer drought severity index (sc-PDSI), and multiscale standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). Daily SDFPI was utilized to monitor and characterize short-term severe floods and droughts. The results illustrate a reasonably good accuracy of ITSG-Grace2018 solution when compared with the hydrological model output and regional water balance estimates. The RF model presents satisfactory performances for the TWSA reconstruction, with a correlation coefficient of 0.88 and Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.76 during the test period 2011–15. Spatiotemporal propagation of the developed SDFPI corresponds well with multiple indices when examined for two typical short-term events, including the 2003 flood and 2013 drought. A total of 22 submonthly exceptional floods and droughts were successfully detected and featured using SDFPI, highlighting its outperformance and capabilities in providing inferences for decision-makers and stakeholders to monitor and mitigate the short-term floods and droughts.

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Analysis of the Influencing Factors of Drought Events Based on GRACE Data under Different Climatic Conditions: A Case Study in Mainland China

Cited by 16 publications

References 47 publications

The Influence of Climate Change on Forest Fires in Yunnan Province, Southwest China Detected by GRACE Satellites

The Influence of Climate Change on Forest Fires in Yunnan Province, Southwest China Detected by GRACE Satellites

Natural- and Human-Induced Influences on Terrestrial Water Storage Change in Sichuan, Southwest China from 2003 to 2020

A Novel Standardized Drought and Flood Potential Index Based on Reconstructed Daily GRACE Data

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