Analysis of the influence of traffic control measures on the prevention and control of COVID-19

Abstract

Transportation plays an important medium role in the COVID-19 epidemic spread, and correctly understanding this role will help to prevent and control the epidemic spread among different areas. This paper analyzed the process of the COVID-19 epidemic spread through transportation channels at home and abroad, and made a comparative analysis of the epidemic development before and after taking traffic control measures in different countries around the world. After clarifying the role of transportation channels in the epidemic spread, we simulated the epidemic development under different traffic control measures based on the SEIR disease dynamics model. The results show that, without traffic control measures, the peak value of infected people will appear earlier. If strict traffic control measures are taken, the simulated lines of the latent and infected people will almost disappear, and the epidemic will soon stop. Our research results provide a theoretical basis for formulating reasonable traffic control measures.

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“…And the last but not the least contribution of this study is to indicate some future innovative research on the three system simulation approaches, which include (1) hybrid models simultaneously capturing micro and macro aspects of the socio-economic systems involved; (2) within-host microscopic level simulation understanding competition between the virus, immune system and associated inflammatory responses; (3) more parameter estimation methods for SDM, ABM, DES and their hybrids; and (4) models for capturing the interactions between pandemic progression and hospital service capacity planning, and so forth. Basic reproduction number (R 0 ) estimation Aggarwal & Rajpu, 2020;Dharmaratne et al, 2020;Eksinchol, 2020;Kumar et al, 2020;Masud et al, 2020;Serhani & Labbardi, 2020;Sundaresan et al, 2020;Wang, Tang, et al, 2020 Estimation of transmission parameters Deng, 2020;Kain et al, 2020;Vattay, 2020 Acute-care service demand dynamics Dagpunar, 2020;Koeppel et al, 2020;Rivera-Rodriguez & Urdinola, 2020;Semenova et al, 2020;Singh & Bajpai, 2020 Long-term trend prediction Investigation of the timing and size of second waves Eguíluz et al, 2020;Friston et al, 2020;Glass, 2020 Evaluate impacts of non-pharmaceutical intervention (NPI) measures Mobility restrictions Liu, He, et al, 2020;Scala et al, 2020;Wang, Zhu, et al, 2020Lockdown Alrashed et al, 2020Lyra et al, 2020;Morozova et al, 2021 Quarantine Barbarossa et al, 2020;Batista et al, 2020;Khyar & Allali, 2020;Sun, Duan, et al, 2020;Zu et al, 2020 Contact restrictions Liu, He,et al, 2020;…”

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