Analysis of the impact of climate change on groundwater related hydrological fluxes: a multi-model approach including different downscaling methods

Stoll, Sebastian; Franssen, Harrie‐Jan Hendricks; Butts, M. B.; Kinzelbach, Wolfgang

doi:10.5194/hessd-7-7521-2010

Cited by 42 publications

(55 citation statements)

References 39 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…The use of hydrologic models offers the advantage of spatially mapping the patterns of hydrological consequences resulting from LULC changes and allows for the comparison of basinal changes in hydrological components with basinal scale changes in LULC. Numerous studies have illustrated the significant advantages in the application of hydrologic models such as the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) [5,[13][14][15][16][17][18], Système Hydrologique Européen (MIKE-SHE) [19], Distributed Hydrology-Soil-Vegetation Model (DHSVM) [20], the Precipitation Runoff Modelling System (PRMS) [21] and the Soil Conservation Service (SCS) model [22] in assessing the impacts of LULC on hydrology.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hydrological Responses to Land Use/Cover Changes in the Olifants Basin, South Africa

Gyamfi

Ndambuki

Salim

2016

Water

106

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This paper discusses the hydrological impacts of land use changes on the Olifants Basin in South Africa using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). A three-phase land use scenario (2000, 2007 and 2013) employing the "fix-changing" method was used to simulate the hydrology of the Olifants Basin. Changes in land uses were related to different hydrological responses through a multi-regression analysis to quantify the effects of land use changes. Results reveal that from 2000 to 2013, a 31.6% decrease in rangeland with concomitant increases in agriculture lands (20.1%), urban areas (10.5%) and forest (0.7%) led to a 46.97% increase in surface runoff generation. Further, urbanization was revealed as the strongest contributor to increases in surface runoff generation, water yield and evapotranspiration (ET). ET was found to be a key water availability determinant as it has a high negative impact on surface runoff and water yield. Urbanization and agriculture were the most essential environmental factors influencing water resources of the basin with ET playing a dominant role. The output of the paper provides a simplistic approach of evaluating the impacts of land use changes on water resources. The tools and methods used are relevant for policy directions on water resources planning and adaptation of strategies.

show abstract

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hydrological Responses to Land Use/Cover Changes in the Olifants Basin, South Africa

Gyamfi

Ndambuki

Salim

2016

Water

106

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Consequently, temporal and spatial changes of the hydrological cycle and of the associated impact on water resources take place (e.g. Stoll et al 2011). In addition to changes in surface runoff with possible floods and droughts, the impact of climate variations on groundwater through alteration of groundwater recharge is an important aspect for future water management.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of climate change on groundwater recharge in a small catchment in the Black Forest, Germany

Neukum

Azzam

2012

Hydrogeol J

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Temporal and spatial changes of the hydrological cycle are the consequences of climate variations. In addition to changes in surface runoff with possible floods and droughts, climate variations may affect groundwater through alteration of groundwater recharge with consequences for future water management. This study investigates the impact of climate change, according to the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A1B, A2 and B1, on groundwater recharge in the catchment area of a fissured aquifer in the Black Forest, Germany, which has sparse groundwater data. The study uses a water-balance model considering a conceptual approach for groundwatersurface water exchange. River discharge data are used for model calibration and validation. The results show temporal and spatial changes in groundwater recharge. Groundwater recharge is progressively reduced for summer during the twenty-first century. The annual sum of groundwater recharge is affected negatively for scenarios A1B and A2. On average, groundwater recharge during the twenty-first century is reduced mainly for the lower parts of the valley and increased for the upper parts of the valley and the crests. The reduced storage of water as snow during winter due to projected higher air temperatures causes an important relative increase in rainfall and, therefore, higher groundwater recharge and river discharge.

show abstract

“…Some of the previous studies have incorporated uncertainty analysis. For example, Ali et al (2012), Jackson et al (2011), Stoll et al (2011), and Sulis et al (2012) use input scenarios from more than one climate model (General Circulation Model -GCM or Regional Climate Model -RCM), while others account for different greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (e.g. Dams et al, 2012;Neukum and Azzam, 2012;Serrat-Capdevila et al, 2007).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Uncertainty of climate change impact on groundwater reserves – Application to a chalk aquifer

Goderniaux

Brouyère

Wildemeersch³

et al. 2015

Journal of Hydrology

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Keywords:Groundwater Climate change Uncertainty Integrated model HydroGeoSphere UCODE s u m m a r y Recent studies have evaluated the impact of climate change on groundwater resources for different geographical and climatic contexts. However, most studies have either not estimated the uncertainty around projected impacts or have limited the analysis to the uncertainty related to climate models. In this study, the uncertainties around impact projections from several sources (climate models, natural variability of the weather, hydrological model calibration) are calculated and compared for the Geer catchment (465 km 2 ) in Belgium. We use a surface-subsurface integrated model implemented using the finite element code HydroGeoSphere, coupled with climate change scenarios and the UCODE_2005 inverse model, to assess the uncertainty related to the calibration of the hydrological model. This integrated model provides a more realistic representation of the water exchanges between surface and subsurface domains and constrains more the calibration with the use of both surface and subsurface observed data. Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses were performed on predictions. The linear uncertainty analysis is approximate for this nonlinear system, but it provides some measure of uncertainty for computationally demanding models. Results show that, for the Geer catchment, the most important uncertainty is related to calibration of the hydrological model. The total uncertainty associated with the prediction of groundwater levels remains large. By the end of the century, however, the uncertainty becomes smaller than the predicted decline in groundwater levels.

show abstract

Analysis of the impact of climate change on groundwater related hydrological fluxes: a multi-model approach including different downscaling methods

Cited by 42 publications

References 39 publications

Hydrological Responses to Land Use/Cover Changes in the Olifants Basin, South Africa

Hydrological Responses to Land Use/Cover Changes in the Olifants Basin, South Africa

Impact of climate change on groundwater recharge in a small catchment in the Black Forest, Germany

Uncertainty of climate change impact on groundwater reserves – Application to a chalk aquifer

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About