Analysis of the Emergence of Autonomous Vehicles Using Simulation-based Dynamic Traffic Assignment – The Case of Budapest

Alatawneh, Anas; Shatanawi, Mohamad; Mészáros, Ferenc

doi:10.3311/pptr.20655

Cited by 3 publications

(1 citation statement)

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“…The potential benefits of AVs (e.g. increasing safety levels, reducing road accidents and decreasing traffic congestion [4][5][6][7][8]) vary considerably by their penetration into the market [9]. Some researchers tend to create several scenarios to cover the possible cases of integrating AVs into road networks as this new technology is not yet entirely developed (see e.g.…”

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confidence: 99%

Examining the Impact of Hysteresis on the Projected Adoption of Autonomous Vehicles

Alatawneh,

Torok

2023

PROMTT

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This study explores the potential impact of per capita gross domestic product (GDP) changes on the adoption of autonomous vehicles (AVs). The level of adoption of AVs is anticipated to influence the benefits of future mobility, prompting numerous studies that forecast the market share of AVs using various methods. The influence of changes in the per capita GDP on vehicle ownership is crucial in assessing the challenges associated with reducing dependence on AVs in the future. This phenomenon, known as the hysteresis effect, implies that AV adoption estimates may differ when the GDP is rising as opposed to when it is falling. This research examines the effect of rising and falling GDP per capita on the anticipated AV diffusion in Hungary, utilising a scenario-based method to account for the variation in adoption rates in the literature. The study findings indicate that declines in GDP in the past will impact AV ownership, leading to a shift in future adoption patterns. The AV market is projected to reach saturation in the 2070s and the 2090s in favourable and moderate scenarios, respectively, while a pessimistic state would delay this outcome until after the year 2100.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Examining the Impact of Hysteresis on the Projected Adoption of Autonomous Vehicles

Alatawneh,

Torok

2023

PROMTT

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A predictive modeling framework for forecasting cumulative sales of euro-compliant, battery-electric and autonomous vehicles

Alatawneh,

Torok

2024

Decision Analytics Journal

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Potential autonomous vehicle ownership growth in Hungary using the Gompertz model

Alatawneh

Török

2023

Production Engineering Archives

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Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) are anticipated to bring forth a multitude of advantages for upcoming mobility.These potential benefits and many others vary substantially by the market share of AVs. There are several articles that investigated AV market share with a variety of methods, however, they show a huge variation depending on the market specifications. The aim of this research is to calculate private AV adoption rates over time depending on the Hungarian automobile market characteristics. The research empirically estimates, using the Gompertz function, the projected growth rates of private autonomous passenger vehicles in Hungary using historical patterns of human-driven vehicle ownership data on the basis of projected per capita GDP.The study's findings suggest that, in an optimistic and moderate scenario, the Hungarian car market is projected to become saturated due to AVs by 2067 and 2076, respectively. However, a pessimistic estimation indicates that saturation is unlikely to occur before 2100. This study’s contribution to the literature is through a mathematical approach that predicts AVs market penetration rate and saturation year, in which the assumptions and the used parameters of the model can be modified depending on different case studies, or they can be updated due to the advancement in technology and improvement in knowledge of the studied market.

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Analysis of the Emergence of Autonomous Vehicles Using Simulation-based Dynamic Traffic Assignment – The Case of Budapest

Cited by 3 publications

References 10 publications

Examining the Impact of Hysteresis on the Projected Adoption of Autonomous Vehicles

Examining the Impact of Hysteresis on the Projected Adoption of Autonomous Vehicles

A predictive modeling framework for forecasting cumulative sales of euro-compliant, battery-electric and autonomous vehicles

Potential autonomous vehicle ownership growth in Hungary using the Gompertz model

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