Analysis of the dynamics of gross domestic product and external economic activity of the Russian Federation for 2013−2018

Abstract

Currently, the Russian Federation is a significant geopolitical and economic player in the modern global world, it has its own interests and traditional partnerships with most states, including business representatives of those countries that are trying to restrain its development through restrictions and partial isolation from global development opportunities . Despite the sanctions and the unfavorable world market conditions, the Russian economy showed high plasticity, stability and adaptability to external changes, which was reflected in the positive dynamics of foreign trade growth in the existing conditions. Therefore, the purpose of this article was to conduct a comprehensive analysis of the dynamics of official statistics on economic growth and foreign trade in the Russian Federation for the period 2013-2018. To achieve this goal, the following tasks were solved: 1) an analysis of the dynamics of the gross domestic product of the Russian Federation for the period 2013-2018; 2) the role of foreign trade in the gross domestic product of the country is estimated through the calculation of foreign economic quotas; 3) analyzed the dynamics of foreign trade, imports and exports of the Russian Federation; 4) revealed the shares of product groups in the structure of exports and imports, as well as the most significant counterparties of the Russian Federation. The hypothesis of the study was the thesis of the interdependence of the volume of economic growth and foreign economic activity, including taking into account changes in foreign economic conditions. The article provides a retrospective analysis of the dynamics of economic growth in terms of nominal value and purchasing power parity, as well as the dynamics of foreign trade of the Russian Federation for the period 2013-2018. A preliminary forecast of foreign trade volumes for 2019 is given. The calculation of foreign economic, export and import quotas for the same period. The Russian specifics of the dynamics and structure of export supplies and import flows, as well as the structure of both imports and exports by counteragent countries and enlarged groups of the commodity nomenclature of foreign economic activity, are examined. For the period under review, the nominal GDP fell by 28.8%, while in terms of purchasing power parity, the Russian economy grew by 5.7% over the same period. At the same time, the largest drawdown in the economy occurred in the middle of the period; in recent years, the situation in the economy has improved. The role of foreign trade in the formation of GDP during the period was relatively stable, with the exception of 2018, when the foreign trade quota sharply increased (as well as export and import). The dynamics of foreign trade and export quotas in the Russian Federation are almost identical, while imports depend on export earnings. For the study period, foreign trade turnover of the Russian Federation decreased by 18.4%, export volumes decreased by 14.8%, import purchases decreased by 24.5%. The main problem of the economy and foreign economic activity remains its dependence on the export of mineral products.