Analysis of the Diffusion Effect of the MICE Industry and New Demand Forecasts -A Bass Diffusion Model Perspective-

Abstract

The MICE industry is a high value-added industry and is taking the lead in attracting activities and support at the national level to foster it as a national strategic industry around the world. Accordingly, rational demand forecasting and research on the trend of participants are essential for successful operation in relation to determining the appropriate size of MICE-related facilities and securing infrastructure. This study analyzed the diffusion effect of the MICE industry using Bass' diffusion model, and predicted the demand for new participants. The regional scope of the study was targeting six metropolitan cities including Seoul and Jeju. The analysis was conducted by subdividing the types of participants into Koreans and foreigners. As a result of the study, it was found that the meeting field has an innovation effect and an imitation effect, respectively, depending on the region. In the exhibition area, the innovation effect in all regions was low, and the imitation effect was high in some regions. In the convention field, the innovation effect in all regions was low, and most regions showed no imitation effect. The results of the diffusion effect by city and the demand forecast for new participants suggested in this study can be the basic data for establishing strategies suitable for the needs and types of participants, such as determining the size of MICE infrastructure and establishing marketing strategies. In addition, it is necessary to accurately identify the factors of diffusion of MICE participants in the future and establish customized investment and strategies accordingly. Furthermore, in the tourism field, new types of industries are continuously appearing through the organic combination of different industries to secure a competitive advantage. As such, it is of academic significance that this study suggested the possibility of applying the Bass diffusion model to the demand forecasting of industries appearing in a new form in the market such as the MICE industry.