Analysis of Temporal Drought Characteristic Using SPI Drought Index Based on Rainfall Data in Laikipia West Sub-County, Kenya

Karanja, Amon Mwangi; Ondimu, Kennedy Nyabuti; Recha, Charles W.

doi:10.4236/oalib.1103765

Cited by 11 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 5 publications

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“…Kenya has been witnessing an increase in severe and frequent famine events in recent decades, exacerbated by the recent decline in March-May (MAM) seasonal rainfall [36][37][38][39]. Numerous studies have been conducted to ascertain drought variabilities, trends, and the respective impacts on agriculture, economy, water resources, and environment over the study region [40][41][42][43]. These researchers have employed various drought indices recommended by the WMO [11].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of Meteorological Drought and Flood Scenarios over Kenya, East Africa

et al. 2020

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This work examines drought and flood events over Kenya from 1981 to 2016 using the Standardized Precipitation–Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). The spatiotemporal analysis of dry and wet events was conducted for 3 and 12 months. Extreme drought incidences were observed in the years 1987, 2000, 2006, and 2009 for SPEI-3, whilst the SPEI-12 demonstrated the manifestation of drought during the years 2000 and 2006. The SPEI showed that the wettest periods, 1997 and 1998, coincided with the El Nino event for both time steps. SPEI-3 showed a reduction in moderate drought events, while severe and extreme cases were on the increase tendencies towards the end of the twentieth century. Conversely, SPEI-12 depicted an overall increase in severe drought occurrence over the study location with ab observed intensity of −1.54 and a cumulative frequency of 64 months during the study period. Wet events showed an upward trend in the western and central highlands, while the rest of the regions showed an increase in dry events during the study period. Moreover, moderate dry/wet events predominated, whilst extreme events occurred least frequently across all grid cells. It is apparent that the study area experienced mild extreme dry events in both categories, although moderately severe dry events dominated most parts of the study area. A high intensity and frequency of drought was noted in SPEI-3, while the least occurrences of extreme events were recorded in SPEI-12. Though drought event prevailed across the study area, there was evidence of extreme flood conditions over the recent decades. These findings form a good basis for next step of research that will look at the projection of droughts over the study area based on regional climate models.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of Meteorological Drought and Flood Scenarios over Kenya, East Africa

et al. 2020

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“…An in-depth analysis at each grid cells was conducted based on frequency, length, severity and magnitude of occurrences of some significant incidences. [42][43][44]91]. The cause of this variation from low lying region to humid vegetative areas could be attributed to surface and atmospheric interactions and dynamics.…”

Section: Temporal Patterns and Frequency Incidences Of Dry/wet Eventsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Kenya has been witnessing increase in severe and frequent famine events in the recent decades, exacerbated by the recent decline in March-May (MAM) seasonal rainfall [37][38][39][40]. Numerous studies have been conducted to ascertain drought variabilities, trends and the respective impacts on agriculture, economy, water resources and environment over the study region [41][42][43][44]. These researchers have employed various drought indices recommended by the World Meteorology Organization [11].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For instance, [43] analyzed correlation between the two indices. On the other hand, [42] used Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), to characterize seasonal and annual droughts in Laikipia west sub-county from 1984 to 2014, focusing on drought events occurring during the two rain seasons in Kenya.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, it is a challenge to find a universally applicable criterion for the whole country due to the complexity of landforms and meteorological conditions. So far, very few studies [42,43] have employed a drought monitoring algorithm that is grounded on current rainfall and temperature anomaly, which can be used as a predictor of the severity and the duration of possible occurrence of extreme climatic events.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Characterization of Historical Trends of Droughts and Pluvial Scenarios over Kenya, East Africa

Ayugi¹,

Tan²,

Niu³

et al. 2019

Preprint

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This work examines drought and pluvial events based on Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) over Kenya from 1981 to 2016. Spatiotemporal analysis of dry and wet events is conducted for 3 and 12-month SPEI. The drought incidences were observed during the period 1984, 1987, 2000, 2006, 2009, 2015, and 2016 for SPEI-3 whilst the SPEI-12 demonstrated the manifestation of drought during the year 2000 and 2006. SPEI clearly shows the wettest period, 1997 and 1998 coinciding with the El Nino event in both time steps. SPEI -3 shows a reduction in moderate drought events while severe and extreme cases were on increase towards the end of the twentieth century. Conversely, SPEI-12 depicts an overall severe drought occurrence over the study location with observed intensity of -1.54 and cumulative frequency of 64 months during the study period. The trend of wet events is upwards in the western and central highlands while the rest of the regions show increase in dry events during the study period. Moreover, moderate dry/wet events predominate whilst extreme events occur least frequent across all grid cells. It is apparent that the study area experiences mild extreme dry events in both categories although moderately severe dry events dominate most parts of the study area. High intensity and frequency of drought is noted in SPEI-3 while least occurrences of extreme events are recorded in SPEI-12. Although drought event prevails across the study area, there is evidence of extreme flood conditions over the recent decades.

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The factors driving land cover transitions and land degradation and the potential impacts of the proposed developments in the Isiolo dam watershed, LAPSSET corridor, Kenya

2023

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Isiolo dam is planned to be constructed along the Ewaso Nyiro River to provide water to the planned Isiolo resort city, one of the Lamu Port and Southern Ethiopia Transport (LAPSSET) corridor projects. This paper evaluates the factors driving land cover transitions and their effects, as a consequence of the proposed infrastructure developments with a view to providing evidence-based information for formulating policies and approaches for sustainable land management and development. Landsat images were used to assess Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) change, while land degradation was evaluated based on the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification guidelines (2000–2020). Spatial overlays of land degradation, LULC change, population, and land tenure were performed to establish their interrelations. The results revealed that water, bareland, built-up, and forest increased by 2043%, 83%, 35%, and 17%, respectively, while shrubland and cropland decreased by 26% and 6%, respectively. Further, 61% of the watershed remained stable, 31% experienced degradation and 8% improved. The main drivers of LULC transitions, and land degradation are population pressure, land tenure, climate change and economic growth. With the development of the LAPSSET projects, it is projected that built-up areas, cropland, and bareland will increase mainly due to population increase, while the forest and shrubland will reduce mainly as a consequence of an increase in built-up areas and potentially poor land management. To achieve sustainable development with net zero loss of natural resources, proper planning for economic investments as well as inclusive land-use planning should be enhanced in drylands such as the Isiolo watershed and similar landscapes.

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Analysis of Temporal Drought Characteristic Using SPI Drought Index Based on Rainfall Data in Laikipia West Sub-County, Kenya

Cited by 11 publications

References 5 publications

Evaluation of Meteorological Drought and Flood Scenarios over Kenya, East Africa

Evaluation of Meteorological Drought and Flood Scenarios over Kenya, East Africa

Characterization of Historical Trends of Droughts and Pluvial Scenarios over Kenya, East Africa

The factors driving land cover transitions and land degradation and the potential impacts of the proposed developments in the Isiolo dam watershed, LAPSSET corridor, Kenya

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