Large amounts of (often valuable) information are stored in web-accessible text databases. "Metasearchers" provide unified interfaces to query multiple such databases at once. For efficiency, metasearchers rely on succinct statistical summaries of the database contents to select the best databases for each query. So far, database selection research has largely assumed that databases are static, so the associated statistical summaries do not evolve over time. However, databases are rarely static and the statistical summaries that describe their contents need to be updated periodically to reflect content changes. In this article, we first report the results of a study showing how the content summaries of 152 real web databases evolved over a period of 52 weeks. Then, we show how to use "survival analysis" techniques in general, and Cox's proportional hazards regression in particular, to model database changes over time and predict when we should update each This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Grants Nos. IIS-97-33880, IIS-98-17434, IIS-0643846, IIS-0534784, and IIS-0347993. Permission to make digital or hard copies of part or all of this work for personal or classroom use is granted without fee provided that copies are not made or distributed for profit or direct commercial advantage and that copies show this notice on the first page or initial screen of a display along with the full citation. Copyrights for components of this work owned by others than ACM must be honored. Abstracting with credit is permitted. To copy otherwise, to republish, to post on servers, to redistribute to lists, or to use any component of this work in other works requires prior specific permission and/or a fee. Permissions may be requested from Publications Dept., ACM, Inc., 2 Penn Plaza, Suite 701, New York, NY 10121-0701 USA, fax +1 (212) 869-0481, or permissions@acm.org. content summary. Finally, we exploit our change model to devise update schedules that keep the summaries up to date by contacting databases only when needed, and then we evaluate the quality of our schedules experimentally over real web databases.