Analysis of Stream Flow Trends in Sub-basins of the Upper Blue Nile Basin

Samy, Abeer; Ibrahim, Mona G.; Mahmod, Wael Elham

doi:10.1007/978-3-319-70548-4_240

Cited by 2 publications

(2 citation statements)

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“…The rainfall variability and reduction in amount affect the agricultural activities over the Bilate watershed [30]. Annual and seasonal streamflow variability is consistent with the rainfall, which is in line with the results presented in [76,84,85]. Therefore, factors that modulate the rainfall variability should be considered when studying the inter-annual streamflow alterations in the Bilate.…”

Section: Variability Analysis Of Hydroclimatic Variablessupporting

confidence: 75%

Hydroclimatic Variability in the Bilate Watershed, Ethiopia

Orke

2021

Climate

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It is important to understand variations in hydro-meteorological variables to provide crucial information for water resource management and agricultural operation. This study aims to provide comprehensive investigations of hydroclimatic variability in the Bilate watershed for the period 1986 to 2015. Coefficient of variation (CV) and the standardized anomaly index (SAI) were used to assess the variability of rainfall, temperature, and streamflow. Changing point detection, the Mann–Kendell test, and the Sen’s slope estimator were employed to detect shifting points and trends, respectively. Rainfall and streamflow exhibited higher variability in the Bega (dry) and Belg (minor rainy) seasons than in the Kiremt (main rainy) season. Temperature showed an upward shift of 0.91 °C in the early 1990s. Reduction in rainfall (−11%) and streamflow (−42%) were found after changing points around late 1990s and 2000s, respectively. The changing points detected were likely related to the ENSO episodes. The trend test indicated a significant rise in temperature with a faster increase in the minimum temperature (0.06 °C/year) than the maximum temperature (0.02 °C/year). Both annual mean rainfall and streamflow showed significant decreasing trends of 8.32 mm/year and 3.64 mm/year, respectively. With significant increase in temperature and reduction in rainfall, the watershed has been experiencing a decline in streamflow and a shortage of available water. Adaptation measures should be developed by taking the increasing temperature and the declining and erratic nature of rainfall into consideration for water management and agricultural activities.

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Section: Variability Analysis Of Hydroclimatic Variablessupporting

confidence: 75%

Hydroclimatic Variability in the Bilate Watershed, Ethiopia

Orke

2021

Climate

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“…In addition, they observed no significant trends for both seasonal and annual precipitation. Samy et al [10] analyzed two stream flow stations (one in the outlet of Lake Tana and another on the Blue Nile River) and found insignificant trend in the flow time series, except for two months in the rainy season where an increasing trend occurred.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Statistical Assessment of Rainfall Characteristics in Upper Blue Nile Basin over the Period from 1953 to 2014

Samy

Ibrahim

Mahmod

et al. 2019

Water

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Investigating the trends of hydro-meteorological variables and checking its variability are of great importance for water resources management and development in the River Nile basin. The present study aimed to analyze the rainfall variability and trends in the Upper Blue Nile Basin (UBNB) over a period from 1953 to 2014. Variability analysis showed that the basin has been suffering from variable rainfall events causing severe droughts and floods over different years. According to precipitation concentration index calculations, the basin had irregular and strong irregular rainfall distribution over the annual and dry seasons, while the basin had a uniform and moderate rainfall distribution during the rainy season and small rainy season. For the total annual rainfall, Mann–Kendall test indicated that, for the eastern central part of the basin, a significant increasing trend of 12.85 mm/year occurred over the studied period, while, for the southwestern part of the basin, a significant decrease of 17.78 mm/year occurred. For the rainy season, a significant increasing trend over the northeastern and eastern central parts of the basin with the magnitude of 3.330–12.625 mm/year occurred. Trend analysis was applied on the monthly averaged rainfall over the whole basin and revealed that July and August are the most contributors of rainfall to the basin with 23.32% and 22.65%. Changing point assessment revealed that at Lake Tana outlet there is a decreasing of the rainfall of 17.7% after 1977 that matched with the trend analysis results. The data and results contained herein provide updated information about the current situation in the UBNB. The results can be used to predict future precipitation and estimate the uncertainty in future precipitation prediction models.

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Analysis of Stream Flow Trends in Sub-basins of the Upper Blue Nile Basin

Cited by 2 publications

References 4 publications

Hydroclimatic Variability in the Bilate Watershed, Ethiopia

Hydroclimatic Variability in the Bilate Watershed, Ethiopia

Statistical Assessment of Rainfall Characteristics in Upper Blue Nile Basin over the Period from 1953 to 2014

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