Analysis of Seasonal and Cyclical Variation of the Brazilian Cellulose Price in the Usa Market for the Period of 1997 to 2018

Abstract

The aim of this work was to analyse the seasonality in the price of the Brazilian pulp that is exported to the United States of America in order to support setting strategies and on the decision-making processes of the Brazilian companies in the international market framework. Data from the period between 1997 and 2018, related to the quantity and the value of exportation used in this work, was collected from the ALICE-WEB platform and then deflated using the month of April of 2018 as a base period. The results of the study show an instability in the prices of Brazilian pulp in the United States market, presenting four cycles with a non-periodic length and another fifth cycle that begins with a tendency of price recovery. The seasonal price movement tends to be greater during the second semester of each year, increasing mostly in the month of November. Therefore, the exportation of Brazilian pulp to the United States must be carried out, whenever possible, in the second semester, when the prices are higher, and stock the production from other months as well as look for alternative markets, having in mind a higher profitability for the companies.