Analysis of regional rainfall-runoff parameters for the Lake Michigan Diversion hydrological modeling

Abstract

Comparison of basic flow statistics and fraction of base flow volume derived from measured daily flows and simulated daily runoff time series derived with the HSPEXP and PEST calibration parameters for the calibration period between

Effect of uncertainty of discharge data on uncertainty of discharge simulation for the Lake Michigan Diversion, northeastern Illinois and northwestern Indiana

“…Revisions to the snow process parameters were considered (Over and others, 2010), but the Sixth TRC recommended that changes to snow parameters should be made based on a large system-wide study (Espey and others, 2009). The impervious land parameters were most recently revised in the late 1990s (Soong and Over, 2015). At present (2020), nine regional HSPF parameter sets have been investigated at different times in the LMDA system (Soong and Over, 2015;Espey and others, 2019).…”

“…The impervious land parameters were most recently revised in the late 1990s (Soong and Over, 2015). At present (2020), nine regional HSPF parameter sets have been investigated at different times in the LMDA system (Soong and Over, 2015;Espey and others, 2019). Among the nine HSPF parameter sets, the parameter sets from the original calibration were determined from calibration of published daily discharges from four gaged watersheds adjacent to the diverted watershed in the 1960s and 1970s (for example, Espey and others, 2004, p. 53).…”

“…Among the nine HSPF parameter sets, the parameter sets from the original calibration were determined from calibration of published daily discharges from four gaged watersheds adjacent to the diverted watershed in the 1960s and 1970s (for example, Espey and others, 2004, p. 53). Subsequent parameter sets were developed using different types of data or watersheds in the calibration (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Chicago District, 2009;Soong and Over, 2015). The predictive accuracy of six of the nine parameter sets was evaluated by Soong and Over (2015) using daily discharge records between water years (WYs) 1995 and 2011 available at nine smaller watersheds in or near the diverted watersheds.…”

“…Subsequent parameter sets were developed using different types of data or watersheds in the calibration (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Chicago District, 2009;Soong and Over, 2015). The predictive accuracy of six of the nine parameter sets was evaluated by Soong and Over (2015) using daily discharge records between water years (WYs) 1995 and 2011 available at nine smaller watersheds in or near the diverted watersheds. In addition to their evaluations of historical parameter sets, Soong and Over (2015) developed a new parameter set by simultaneously calibrating two watersheds using the Model-Independent Parameter Estimation and Uncertainty Analysis package (PEST; Watermark Numerical Computing, 2020a, b) as the platform for optimization (hereafter referred to as the "two-watershed parameter set").…”

“…The predictive accuracy of six of the nine parameter sets was evaluated by Soong and Over (2015) using daily discharge records between water years (WYs) 1995 and 2011 available at nine smaller watersheds in or near the diverted watersheds. In addition to their evaluations of historical parameter sets, Soong and Over (2015) developed a new parameter set by simultaneously calibrating two watersheds using the Model-Independent Parameter Estimation and Uncertainty Analysis package (PEST; Watermark Numerical Computing, 2020a, b) as the platform for optimization (hereafter referred to as the "two-watershed parameter set"). The two-watershed parameter set achieved better overall performance than the six parameter sets evaluated for the study period (WYs 1995(WYs to 2011 and is used as the base-model parameter set in this study.…”