Analysis of recent rainfall trends and links to teleconnection patterns in California (U.S.)

González-Pérez, Alejandro; Álvarez-Esteban, Ramón; Penas, Ángel; Río, Sara del

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.128211

Cited by 4 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 101 publications

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“…Increasing maximum temperature, coupled with a general decrease in rainfall in the state [ 6 ], pose a threat to the survival of the northern populations of this tree [ 123 ]. This is consistent with previous research on trends in summer ombrothermic indices [ 124 ], which shows a negative trend in the indicated areas and the current habitat of this species [ 121 ]. The result is also in line with other research indicating a water balance deficit during the summer months for A. magnifica [ 33 ].…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 93%

“…In short, by 2050, California is predicted to experience a decrease in ombrothermic index (Io) values (higher in the south than in the north) and an increase in the continentality index (Ic) values in the east. Widespread increases in both maximum and minimum temperatures throughout California and decreases in precipitation (except in the north and at high mountain elevations) are also observed, consistent with previous investigations [ 6 , 10 ] and IPCC projections [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]. The projections for the summer ombrothermic indices (Ios 2 , Ios 3 , and Ios 4 ) have shown values that fall below one over the entire state, representing a significant decrease from the current values.…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 90%

“…This temperature increase will cause the sea level to rise, enlarge the frequency and severity of extreme weather events, and cause irreversible damage to ecosystems [ 3 ]. Climate change is affecting California’s biodiversity [ 4 , 5 ] by altering temperature [ 6 , 7 , 8 , 9 ], precipitation [ 10 , 11 , 12 , 13 ], and weather patterns [ 14 , 15 ]. These changes can alter the timing of seasonal events, such as flowering and migration, and cause shifts in species distribution ranges [ 16 , 17 , 18 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Moreover, climate change has a significant impact on the distribution and abundance of tree species [ 29 ]. Rising temperatures and changing precipitation patterns [ 6 , 10 ] are accelerating soil water depletion and increasing the risk of drought, altering the conditions that many plant species need to survive [ 30 ]. These changes are often pronounced in ecotones where species reach their climatic bounds and are replaced by other species [ 31 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Bioclimatic Characterisation of Specific Native Californian Pinales and Their Future Suitability under Climate Change

González-Pérez

Álvarez-Esteban

Penas

et al. 2023

Plants

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Rising temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns under climate change scenarios are accelerating the depletion of soil moisture and increasing the risk of drought, disrupting the conditions that many plant species need to survive. This study aims to establish the bioclimatic characterisation, both qualitative and quantitative, of ten native Californian Pinales for the period 1980–2019, and to determine their habitat suitability by 2050. To achieve this, an exhaustive search of the Gbif database for records of ten conifer taxa was carried out. To conduct the bioclimatic characterisation of the studied taxa, we worked with the monthly values of average temperature and precipitation for the period 1980–2019 from 177 meteorological stations. Linear regressions was performed in order to compile the future evolution of California’s climate. Suitable areas and optimal areas were defined at the present time (1980–2019) and its future projection (2050). We applied Boolean logic and, in this investigation, the Conditional Logic Operator (CON) was used to determine the possible species presence (one) or absence (zero) for each of the 15 variables analysed. In general, most of the conifers studied here will experience a reduction in their habitat range in California by the year 2050 due to climate change, as well as the displacement of species towards optimal areas. Furthermore, the results have highlighted the applicability of bioclimatology to future conditions under climate change. This will aid conservation managers in implementing strategic measures to ameliorate the detrimental impacts of climate change, thereby ensuring the ecological integrity and sustainability of the affected conifer species.

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Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 93%

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 90%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Bioclimatic Characterisation of Specific Native Californian Pinales and Their Future Suitability under Climate Change

González-Pérez

Álvarez-Esteban

Penas

et al. 2023

Plants

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“…Our results are also consistent with previous studies that documented increases in non‐perennial conditions from decreased water availability in the subsurface for dry season baseflow due to increased temperature and evapotranspiration (e.g., Ayers et al., 2021; Condon et al., 2020; Erler et al., 2019; Hellwig et al., 2020; Mallakpour et al., 2018; Rao et al., 2017). The impact of climate change on stream drying, however, is more nuanced because of the effect of temperature increases on precipitation (Ashfaq et al., 2013; González‐Pérez et al., 2022). For example, snowmelt processes drive the magnitude and timing of dry season baseflow in many watersheds across California.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Perennial and Non‐Perennial Streamflow Regime Shifts Across California, USA

Ayers,

Yarnell,

Baruch

et al. 2024

Water Resources Research

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Despite rises in drought frequency and human water demands, streamflow regime shifts from perennial to non‐perennial have not been evaluated in many arid/semi‐arid regions. To document shifts, we created a methodology that classifies streams as naturally perennial or non‐perennial. Our classification used historical, minimally disturbed‐quality USGS streamflow gages (1950–2015) across California. The number of consecutive zero flow days (≥5 days) was used to classify 61% (96/158) and 39% (62/158) of gages as perennial and non‐perennial, respectively. We developed a random forest model to predict flow regime class based on climate and watershed characteristics. To identify regime shifts, we compared the observed class of contemporary (1980–2023) minimally disturbed and disturbed gages with their modeled, natural class. For most minimally disturbed gages, the observed and natural predicted classes were the same, but 13% (7/52) of gages had a modeled perennial regime with an observed non‐perennial class, indicating a drying trend. Among disturbed gages, 22% (64/290) shifted from perennial to non‐perennial and 7% (21/290) from non‐perennial to perennial. Trends in the minimum 7‐day moving average and number of zero‐flow days provided further evidence of drying at minimally disturbed streams, but no pattern at disturbed gages. Our results indicate that few minimally disturbed perennial streams have become non‐perennial to date, but many streams have experienced drying from climate. Streams impacted by human activities had greater drying rates, but regulation has caused some non‐perennial streams to become perennial. By quantifying expected natural streamflow regimes, this work can help monitor, manage, and conserve stream ecosystems.

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