Analysis of Rainfall Pattern in the Western Region of Ghana

Twenefour, Frank B. K.; Quaicoe, Michael Techie; Baah, Emmanuel M.

doi:10.9734/ajpas/2018/v1i324538

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AJPAS

2018

DOI: 10.9734/ajpas/2018/v1i324538

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Analysis of Rainfall Pattern in the Western Region of Ghana

Frank B. K. Twenefour

Michael Techie Quaicoe²,

Emmanuel M. Baah

Abstract: The primary aim for this paper is to examine the pattern of rainfall in the western region of Ghana. Data was obtained from the Ghana Meteorological Agency. The sample include January to September pattern of the amount of rainfall, for the years 2006 to 2016. That is nominal daily rainfall recorded (1485) aggregated into monthly rainfall value (99 data point). The analysis includes fitting an auto regression moving average model (ARMA) model for the data. The series was found to be … Show more

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Cited by 4 publications

References 7 publications

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Unsupervised segmentation and clustering time series approach to Southern Africa rainfall regime changes

Chipindu,

Mupangwa,

Nyagumbo

et al. 2023

Geoscience Data Journal

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Analysis of hydro‐climatological time series and spatiotemporal dynamics of meteorological variables has become critical in the context of climate change, especially in Southern African countries where rain‐fed agriculture is predominant. In this work, we compared modern unsupervised time series and segmentation approaches and commonly used time series models to analyse rainfall regime changes in the coastal, sub‐humid and semi‐arid regions of Southern Africa. Rainfall regimes change modelling and prediction inform farming strategies especially when choosing measures for mixed crop–livestock farming systems, as farmers can decide to do rainwater harvesting and moisture conservation or supplementary irrigation if water resources are available. The main goal of this study was to predict/identify rainfall cluster trends over time using regression with hidden logistic process (RHLP) or hidden Markov model regression (HMMR) supplemented by autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and Facebook Prophet models. Historical time series rainfall data was sourced from meteorological services departments for selected site over an average period of 55 years. Commonly used approaches forecasted an upward rainfall trend in the coastal and sub‐humid regions and a declining trend in semi‐arid areas with high variability between and within seasons. For all sites, Ljung‐Box Test Statistics suggested the existence of autocorrelation in rainfall time series data. Prediction capabilities were investigated using the root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) which indicated not much difference between ARIMA and Facebook Prophet models. RHLP and HMMR offered a unique clustering and segmentation approach examining between and within‐season rainfall variability. A maximum of 20 unique rainfall clusters with similar trend characteristics were determined as going beyond this brought non‐significant difference to regime changes. A clear trend was exhibited from 1980 going backwards as compared to recent years signifying how unpredictable is rainfall in Southern Africa. The unsupervised approaches predicted a clear cluster trend in coastal than in sub‐humid and semi‐arid and the performance was assessed using Akaike information criteria and log‐likelihood which showed improvement in prediction power as the number of segmentation clusters approaches 20.

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Unsupervised segmentation and clustering time series approach to Southern Africa rainfall regime changes

Chipindu,

Mupangwa,

Nyagumbo

et al. 2023

Geoscience Data Journal

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

Analyzing and forecasting rainfall patterns in the Manga-Bawku area, northeastern Ghana: Possible implication of climate change

Dankwa¹,

Cudjoe²,

Amuah³

et al. 2021

Environmental Challenges

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Methodology for the Development of Hybrid Renewable Energy Systems (HRES) with Pumped Storage and Hydrogen Production on Lemnos Island

Agapitidou

Skroufouta

Baltas

2022

Earth

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The non-interconnected islands of Greece can benefit from the comprehensive use of RES to avoid water droughts and ensure energy autonomy. The present paper analyzes an HRES with two possible operating scenarios. Both of them include a wind park of 27.5 MW capacity, an 1175 m3/day desalination plant, and a 490,000 m3/day water tank in Lemnos, Greece. Regarding the wind power, 70% is used in the HRES, while the rest is channeled directly to the grid. The main difference comes down to how the wind energy is stored, either in the form of hydraulic energy or in the form of hydrogen. The lifespan of the system is 25 years, such as the produced stochastic series of rainfall, temperature, and wind of the area. Through the comparison of the operating scenarios, the following results arise: (i) the water needs of the island are fully covered and the irrigation needs have a reliability of 66%, in both scenarios. (ii) Considering the energy needs, the pumping storage seems to be the most reliable solution. (iii) However, depending on the amount of wind energy surplus, the use of hydrogen could produce more energy than the hydroelectric plant.

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Analysis of Rainfall Pattern in the Western Region of Ghana

Cited by 4 publications

References 7 publications

Unsupervised segmentation and clustering time series approach to Southern Africa rainfall regime changes

Unsupervised segmentation and clustering time series approach to Southern Africa rainfall regime changes

Analyzing and forecasting rainfall patterns in the Manga-Bawku area, northeastern Ghana: Possible implication of climate change

Methodology for the Development of Hybrid Renewable Energy Systems (HRES) with Pumped Storage and Hydrogen Production on Lemnos Island

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