Analysis of Policy Options for Projects in the Electricity Sector in Sub Saharan Africa: A System Dynamics Approach

Abstract

Many projects in the electricity energy sector in Africa's subSaharan region experience delays and challenges to quality, leading to frequent power outages that slow overall economic activity and frustrate investor confidence in the region. This paper presents the systemic methods employed to evaluate the dynamic consequences of policies in electricity energy sector projects in the region. The model uses the Vensim software to carry out the simulations. A range of illustrative scenarios are provided and analysed, and the paper compares and contrasts these different scenarios. The results show that there is merit in improving project management competence in the region. A shortage of commissioning engineers also emerged as a major problem in the projects, leading to multitasking as the few existing commissioning engineers move from one project to another. To address this weakness, the study proposes that contracting firms be compelled to employ a higher proportion of commissioning engineers. OPSOMMINGBaie projekte in die elektrisiteit energiesektor in die sub-SaharaAfrika streek ervaar kwaliteit uitdagings en vertragings, wat lei tot gereelde kragonderbrekings. Dit verlangsaam die algehele ekonomiese aktiwiteit en frustreer beleggersvertroue in die streek. Hierdie artikel bied die sistemiese metodes wat gebruik is om die dinamiese gevolge van beleid in die elektrisiteit energiesektor projekte in die streek te evalueer. Die model maak gebruik van die Vensim sagteware om die simulasies uit te voer. 'n Verskeidenheid van illustratiewe scenario's word aangebied en ontleed, en die verskillende scenario's word vergelyk en kontrasteer. Die resultate wys dat daar meriete is in die verbetering van projekbestuur kundigheid in die streek. Die tekort aan ingenieurs wat die projekte kan uitvoer, is ook uitgewys as 'n groot problem, waar die van die ingenieurs verwag word om met 'n multi-taak benadering tussen die projekte te beweeg. Om dit te adresseer, word daar voorgestel dat die kontrakteurs 'n groter hoeveelheid van die ingenieurs moet indiens neem.

Project management and system dynamics modelling: Time to connect with innovation and sustainability

“…The results show that several studies have explored the dynamic of PM through SD models in different fields. These studies have been used for different purposes, as for instance, litigation (Cooper, 1980; Nasirzadeh et al, 2019; Williams et al, 2003), decision‐making process (Lopes et al, 2015; Sadabadi & Kama, 2014), development of policies (Lee et al, 2007; Mashayekhi, 2000; Ogano & Pretorius, 2017) and analysis of human resources in project delivery (Garcia‐Alvarez et al, 2016). In fact, the SD models consider relevant variables associated with the sustainability and innovation (Pargar & Kujala, 2021; Zhou & Liu, 2015), although studies of both have been developed separately.…”

An overview of salient factors, relationships and values to support integrated energy-economic systems dynamic modeling

“…This modelling approach is a well-established technique (Sterman, 2000) characterised by non-linearities and feedback between the components in the model and is well suited to modelling complex socio-economic phenomena (Crookes et al, 2013). Its application in the energy field is substantial, with the focus on energy inputs through biodiesel (Musango et al, 2012), coal , invasive alien plants (Mudavanhu et al, 2016;Vundla et al, 2016; as well as labour inputs to the electricity sector (Ogano & Pretorius, 2017).…”

Using System Dynamics Approach to Development of Enrollment Policies in Higher Education: A Case of Teacher Education Faculties in Croatia

“…Main characteristics of the method is nonlinear dependencies between parts of the model, feedback loops, time delays and modeling the system as a whole with time dynamics [13]. Method is used in a variety of disciplines [14], [15], [16], including human resources planning [17], [18].…”