Analysis of passenger car tailpipe emissions in different world regions up to 2050

Abstract

This study presents the carbon dioxide (CO2), particulate matter (PM2.5) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) tailpipe emission analysis of passenger cars in 9 different world regions up to 2050 based on a bottom-up calculation method. A diffusion model which considers current policy electrification targets is used to analyze market entry and development of different drivetrain/fuel technologies in the respective vehicle stocks of each world region. Drivetrain- and country-specific emission factors are weighted according to the modelled stock compositions. The obtained stock-fleet-average emission factors are multiplied with the transport demand in order to obtain total passenger car emissions which are then spatially distributed using proxy raster emission data. The results of this study reveal that global passenger car CO2, NOx and PM2.5 emissions decrease from 2015 until 2050 by approx. 45%, 63% and 54%, respectively. The market analysis indicates that gasoline will continue to be a significant energy carrier in 2050 with a stock share of approx. 25%; however, electric vehicles will take the lead, especially after 2040. Furthermore, China and Europe stay as advancing markets for passenger car fleet electrification, while the majority of developing countries follow up with low shares. It can be obtained that even if the passenger car fleets become cleaner, an increase of the transport demand can dampen or even nullify the total emission reduction effect. As a conclusion, the bottom-up approach enables to quantify passenger car emissions in a transparent way. However, challenges exist regarding the uncertainty caused by lacking data availability.