This study presents a holistic model based on Fuzzy Bayesian
Network-Human Factor Analysis and System Classification (FBN-HFACS)
to analyze contributing factors in the pandemic, Covid 19, risk
management under uncertainty. The model contains three main phases
include employing a) HFACS to systematically identify influencing
factors based on validation using content validity indicators, b)
Fuzzy Set Theory to obtain the prior probability distribution of
contributing factors in pandemic risk and address the epistemic
uncertainty and subjectivity, and finally, c) Bayesian network to
develop causality model of the risk, probabilistic inferences and
handle parameter and model uncertainties. The Ratio of Variation
(RoV), as BN-driven importance measures, is utilized to conduct
sensitivity analysis and explore the most critical factors that
yield effective safety countermeasures. The model is tested to
investigate four large manufacturing industries in South Khorasan
(Iran). It provided a deep understanding of influencing human and
organizational factors and captured dependencies among those
factors, while quantitative finding paves a way to efficiently make
risk-based decisions to deal with the pandemic risks under
uncertainty.