“…In modelling trend for this study the exponential trend or log-linear as employed by Ahmad et. al., 2005; Onyeaweaku and Okoye, 2005; Udom, 2006;Diebold, 2007;Ojiako et,al. 2007;Ojiako et, al.…”
The trend of sugar cane production and refined sugar imports for the period 1960-2010 were analysed and forecasted to year 2020. Results show that sugar cane output will rise to 2.8m tonnes from about 88 thousand hectares of land by year 2020. The total refined sugar that will be available from production and import is about 720 thousand tonnes but with Nigerian population growing at the rate of 2.27%, potential demand for refined sugar will rise to 1.6B tonnes by the year 2020 creating a deficit of over 1.5B tonnes. This require a drastic action which if not taken will lead to sugar crisis. Three major options are advocated in this paper i.e. hectarage expansion, massive funding of research to improve sugar cane production technology such that yield will rise to 150 tonnes per hectare and import expansion. Of the three options, only increase funding of research will encourage local technology and save Nigeria foreign exchange of more than $100B annually and will make Nigeria self-reliant in sugar production by the year 2020 and facilitate the emergence of Nigeria as a developed nation.
“…In modelling trend for this study the exponential trend or log-linear as employed by Ahmad et. al., 2005; Onyeaweaku and Okoye, 2005; Udom, 2006;Diebold, 2007;Ojiako et,al. 2007;Ojiako et, al.…”
The trend of sugar cane production and refined sugar imports for the period 1960-2010 were analysed and forecasted to year 2020. Results show that sugar cane output will rise to 2.8m tonnes from about 88 thousand hectares of land by year 2020. The total refined sugar that will be available from production and import is about 720 thousand tonnes but with Nigerian population growing at the rate of 2.27%, potential demand for refined sugar will rise to 1.6B tonnes by the year 2020 creating a deficit of over 1.5B tonnes. This require a drastic action which if not taken will lead to sugar crisis. Three major options are advocated in this paper i.e. hectarage expansion, massive funding of research to improve sugar cane production technology such that yield will rise to 150 tonnes per hectare and import expansion. Of the three options, only increase funding of research will encourage local technology and save Nigeria foreign exchange of more than $100B annually and will make Nigeria self-reliant in sugar production by the year 2020 and facilitate the emergence of Nigeria as a developed nation.
“…The annual exponential or compound growth rates (or what is sometimes referred to as the left-side semi-log) analysis was used to estimate the growth rates in livestock production in Nigeria. The method has been variously applied in past trend studies in Nigerian agriculture (Sawant, 1983;Onyenweaku and Okoye, 2005;Udom, 2006;Ojiako et al, 2007).…”
Section: Modeling the Trends For Analysis Of Growth Ratesmentioning
The livestock industry as an important component of general agriculture is expected to be a key contributor to national development. This study analyzes the livestock production trends in Nigeria with a view to ascertaining the influence of policy changes on real output of livestock over time, and investigates the existence of acceleration, stagnation or deceleration in growth of livestock production at different periods. Secondary data on real production for the 1970-2005 periods were obtained from the publications of the Central Bank of Nigeria. Annual compound growth indices were calculated from the estimated trend equations while existence of acceleration, stagnation or deceleration in growth was investigated using quadratic equations in the time trend variables of the livestock production data. Results reveal that the growth rate, which was less than 1% per annum during the 1970-1985 pre-SAP period increased to 6.44% and 8.92% per annum respectively during the 1986-1998 SAP and 1999-2005 post-SAP eras. The compound growth rate was computed as 4.83% per annum during the entire period under study. Presence of statistical significant acceleration (p<0.01) was found during the entire 1970-2005 period. However, whereas the 1986-1998 period recorded statistical significant deceleration (p<0.01), the periods 1970-1985 and 1999-2005 had confirmed cases of stagnation. The study suggests that for deregulation policy to result to desired accelerated growth in livestock production it should be accompanied by relevant farm support policies, like provision of accessible credit and subsidization of agricultural inputs, to produce the desired multiplier effects on agriculture and food production.
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