Analysis of Mexican Corn Prices in the Chicago Board of Trade Futures Market, Period 2000-2016

Abstract

This work outlines an analysis of the relationship between real prices of real production and prices resulting from speculation in the period 2000-2016. The specific agricultural commodity selected to carry out this study is Mexican yellow corn, whose prices are analyzed based on the spot market, on the real or physical goods market, and on the results of speculation within the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) of the CME Group, located in the United States of America. To achieve the above, a linear regression analysis using the ordinary least squares (OLS) method and time series data has been applied. We consider that this tool is the most appropriate to test the hypothesis planted based on currently available data. Among the main findings of the analysis is that the growing speculation in agricultural commodity markets (in this case Mexican yellow corn) brings with it a series of structural problems in the Mexican agricultural sector, such as the agrifood crisis, the lack of food sovereignty and a highly speculative pricing process coming from abroad. In this sense, this work shows evidence of the need to put forward proposals in terms of public policy, whose axis is the effective regulation of the national and international financial system.