Analysis of meteorological effects on the incidence of tick-borne encephalitis in the Czech Republic over a thirty-year period

Abstract

The goal is to analyse the effect of climatic factors on the incidence of tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) in three adjacent, high-incidence regions of the Czech Republic (CZ) that differed considerably in the baseline incidence and in the timing of high incidence period. The basis for the analysis were the meteorological data from a 30-year database of daily air temperature and precipitation measurements and time-matched reports of TBE cases defined by the onset of symptoms.A semi-parametric Poisson regression model revealed a statistically significant relationship between the average daily ambient air temperature and incidence of TBE. The shapes of the dependence were similar in all three regions under study. The analysis of the available data did not show a statistically significant relationship between the precipitation amount and incidence of TBE. Other statistically significant predictors were the trend over calendar years, monthly seasonality and trendseasonality interaction (the shape of the monthly seasonality varies over years), and day of week. The climate changes had differentiated effects on TBE increase depending on the local environmental conditions as can be illustrated by the variations between the three regions not only in the TBE incidence level but also in the shape of the trend over years. • We quantify nonlinear ambient temperature response, together with annual and seasonal effects in detail.

Increased Relative Risk of Tick-Borne Encephalitis in Warmer Weather

“…Our previous study showed near-ground temperature in the site of tick monitoring is the strongest predictor of tick activity, and showed a high correlation with local meteorological observations in Central Bohemia (Daniel et al, 2015 ). Similar observations apply to monitoring sites in northern Bohemia, northern Moravia, southern Bohemia, and in the Bohemian-Moravian Highlands (Daniel et al, 2016 ; Brabec et al, 2017 ). Hence seasonal discrepancies between numbers of active I. ricinus nymphs and TBE cases appear to be independent of locality.…”

Tick-Borne Encephalitis Virus: An Emerging Ancient Zoonosis?

“…The increasing incidence of TBE was also observed in Poland [31], Norway [32], Sweden [33], Finland [34], and Mongolia [35]. In Central Europe [36], and in Italy [37], TBEV area was expanding to areas with higher elevation above sea level, which was also attributed to the warming climate. Recently, human cases of TBE were registered in Western Europe [38,39].…”

A One-Health Approach to Investigating an Outbreak of Alimentary Tick-Borne Encephalitis in a Non-endemic Area in France (Ain, Eastern France): A Longitudinal Serological Study in Livestock, Detection in Ticks, and the First Tick-Borne Encephalitis Virus Isolation and Molecular Characterisation

“…Tick-borne encephalitis virus (TBEV) is endemic throughout Central and Eastern Europe and has so far been detected in twenty-seven European countries. In the past decades, TBE human incidence has been increasing in several European countries ( ECDC, 2012 , 2018 ), with new foci detected in the United Kingdom ( Holding et al, 2020 ) and Netherlands ( Jahfari et al, 2017 ), expanding into previously unaffected areas ( Daniel et al, 2004 ; Lukan et al, 2010 ; Donoso Mantke et al, 2011 ; Martello et al, 2014 ; Brabec et al, 2017 ; Rieille et al, 2017 ; Hellenbrand et al, 2019 ; Alfano et al, 2020 ). These observations, associated with evidence of a recent increase in TBEV diversity in Europe, suggest that TBEV may be regarded as an emerging disease ( Deviatkin et al, 2020 ).…”