Analysis of Irrigation Needs Using an Approach Based on a Bivariate Copula Methodology

Abstract

The problem of drought probability has been investigated by several authors, who have usually analysed droughts using various drought indices such as the Standard Precipitation Index. Various aspects of time series of such indices (intensity, severity and duration) were investigated by several authors using a copula method. Because such analysis is based on only one basic climatic variable, this paper addresses a different approach, i.e., joint analysis of the severity and duration of the most demanding potential annual irrigation periods by a bivariate copula method. Characteristics of these periods are derived from both temperature and precipitation. Maximum annual duration of the potential irrigation period and corresponding rainfall deficit were inferred from these basic variables as inputs to two-dimensional probability analysis by the copula method, because this offers more direct answers to questions of irrigation needs. Results indicate the suitability of the proposed method for analysis of irrigation needs, with greater benefits than the typical one-dimensional analysis of individual climatic variables. A case study for testing the method was done for southwestern Slovakia, for which the frequency of irrigation needs was estimated. Example results indicate that every second year, a one-month period can be expected in which temperatures are > 25 • C and there is a moisture deficit of ∼30 mm. Even more significant periods of drought can be expected, for example, with a 5 or 10-year return period. These phenomena significantly damage agriculture yields, so requirements for irrigation structures in the study area are indicated by the proposed method.