Analysis of incidence of air quality on human health: a case study on the relationship between pollutant concentrations and respiratory diseases in Kennedy, Bogotá

Abstract

Thousands of deaths associated with air pollution each year could be prevented by forecasting the behavior of factors that pose risks to people's health and their geographical distribution. Proximity to pollution sources, degree of urbanization, and population density are some of the factors whose spatial distribution enables the identification of possible influence on the presence of respiratory diseases (RD). Currently, Bogotá is among the cities with the poorest air quality in Latin America.Specifically, the locality of Kennedy is one of the zones in the city with the highest recorded concentration levels of local pollutants over the last 10 years. From 2009 -2016, there were 8619 deaths associated with respiratory and cardiovascular diseases in the locality. Given these characteristics, this study set out to identify and analyze the areas in which the primary socio-economic and environmental conditions contribute to the presence of symptoms associated with RD. To this end, information collected in field by performing georeferenced surveys was analyzed through geostatistical and machine learning tools which carried out cluster and pattern analyses. Random forests and AdaBoost were applied to establish hotspots where RD could occur, given the conjugation of predictor variables in the micro-territory. It was found that random forests outperformed AdaBoost with 0.63 AUC. In particular, this study's approach applies to densely populated municipalities with high levels of air pollution. In using these tools, Municipalities can anticipate environmental health situations and reduce the cost of respiratory disease treatments.

Box-Jenkins stochastic models for studying air pollutants in a Latin American megacity

“…It is important to mention that in the months where the greatest amount of minimal outliers were observed for PM10, PM2.5, and O3 concentrations, the highest wind speeds occurred. This according to the monthly historical behavior of wind speed; some researchers reported similar results [14]. Therefore, the results hinted at the influence of wind direction on the occurrence of atypical concentrations or episodes of alert for air pollution in the study megacity.…”

Sustainable economic activities, climate change, and carbon risk: an international evidence

“…The past literature substantiates the adverse effects of air pollution on human health. Researchers found that large portion of deaths are associated with the air pollution that could be reduced by improving the air quality (Molina-Gómez et al, 2020 ). Many health and socio-economic issues are generated from polluted air like cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, visibility issues, economic losses, and climate changes (Etchie et al, 2017 ; Forbes et al, 2009 ; Maione et al, 2016 ).…”

Relación entre material particulado, variables meteorológicas e infecciones respiratorias agudas en la zona norte de Ocaña

“…Con los grupos etarios que tuvieron IRA y no tuvieron relación con el material particulado y las condiciones meteorológicas, es posible que esto se deba a las aglomeraciones de la población, Santos et al (2019) mencionan que las altas concentraciones de PM10 se presentan en épocas típicas de celebraciones religiosas y culturales de la ciudad de Ocaña. Otras posibles causas son los comportamientos de migración e inmigración (Houston et al, 2020); según la Secretaria de Salud, desde Venezuela y sitios de Colombia arriban al hospital de Ocaña menores de edad y personas con alteraciones en la salud respiratoria; asimismo, mencionan que este tipo de población reside de forma transitoria en la zona norte con crisis alimentaria, económica y de vivienda; adicionalmente, teniendo en cuenta lo explicado por Molina et al (2021), el desplazamiento interno urbano incide en las IRA. De acuerdo con la Secretaria de Planeación de la ciudad de Ocaña, la zona norte es muy frecuentada por su elevado flujo comercial y de transporte.…”