Analysis of Gaps between the Predictive and the Adaptive Component in ATM

Abstract

In a data analysis, we discovered systematic gaps between the number of planned and the number of realized entries of aircraft into flight sectors. We also found that random disturbances of an arrival process into flight sectors cause systematic gaps. We conclude that even if all controllable uncertainties in flow planning were eliminated, systematic gaps between the number of planned and realized traffic would remain. The results give insight into the macroscopic relationship between planned-and realized traffic flows and are a step towards a realistic model of air-traffic flow.