Analysis of Factors Influencing the Stability of Submarine Hydrate-Bearing Slopes during Depressurization Production

Abstract

Natural gas hydrate reservoirs, with shallow burial, poor cementation, and low strength, are prone to submarine landslides triggered by hydrate decomposition during extraction. Prior studies have inadequately considered factors such as the dynamic decomposition of hydrates during depressurization, and its impacts on the reservoir’s geomechanical properties. In this paper, a coupled thermal–hydraulic–mechanical–chemical mathematical model of hydrate decomposition is proposed, and the dynamic geomechanical response and the effect of hydrate decomposition on seafloor settlement and slope destabilization during the process of depressurization mining are analyzed by combining the strength discount method with the example of a hydrate-bearing seafloor slope in the Shenhu area. Furthermore, the study employs an orthogonal experimental design along with range and variance analysis to gauge the impact of critical factors (degree of hydrate decomposition, seawater depth, hydrate reservoir burial depth, hydrate reservoir thickness, and slope angle) on slope stability. The findings suggest that hydrate decomposition is non-uniform and is influenced by stratigraphic temperature gradients and gravity. In the region where hydrate decomposition occurs, the decrease of pore pressure leads to the increase of effective stress. Additionally, the decomposition of hydrates decreases the shear modulus of sediments, leading to deformation and reduced permeability in the affected area. Over a three-year period of depressurization mining, the significantly reduced safety factor increases the risk of landslides. Various factors play a role in the control of submarine slope stability, with slope inclination being the primary factor, followed by the degree of hydrate decomposition, reservoir thickness, burial depth, and seawater depth. Among these factors, hydrate burial depth and seawater depth have a positive correlation with submarine slope stability, while increases in other factors generally decrease stability. These research findings have important implications for the safe exploitation of slopes that contain hydrates.