Analysis of Factors Associated with Highway Personal Car and Truck Run-Off-Road Crashes: Decision Tree and Mixed Logit Model with Heterogeneity in Means and Variances Approaches

Abstract

Among several approaches to analyzing crash research, the use of machine learning and econometric analysis has found potential in the analysis. This study aims to empirically examine factors influencing the single-vehicle crash for personal cars and trucks using decision trees (DT) and mixed binary logit with heterogeneity in means and variances (RPBLHMV) and compare model accuracy. The data in this study were obtained from the Department of Highway during 2011–2017, and the results indicated that the RPBLHMV was superior due to its higher overall prediction accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity values when compared to the DT model. According to the RPBLHMV results, car models showed that injury severity was associated with driver gender, seat belt, mount the island, defect equipment, and safety equipment. For the truck model, it was found that crashes located at intersections or medians, mounts on the island, and safety equipment have a significant influence on injury severity. DT results also showed that running off-road and hitting safety equipment can reduce the risk of death for car and truck drivers. This finding can illustrate the difference causing the dependent variable in each model. The RPBLHMV showed the ability to capture random parameters and unobserved heterogeneity. But DT can be easily used to provide variable importance and show which factor has the most significance by sequencing. Each model has advantages and disadvantages. The study findings can give relevant authorities choices for measures and policy improvement based on two analysis methods in accordance with their policy design. Therefore, whether advocating road safety or improving policy measures, the use of appropriate methods can increase operational efficiency.