Analysis of emission data from global commercial aviation: 2004 and 2006

Wilkerson, Jordan; Jacobson, Mark Z.; Malwitz, Andrew; Balasubramanian, S.; Wayson, Roger L.; Fleming, Gregg G.; Naiman, A. D.; Lele, Sanjiva K.

doi:10.5194/acp-10-6391-2010

Cited by 233 publications

(140 citation statements)

References 14 publications

(16 reference statements)

Supporting

Mentioning

135

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Our model simulations include CO 2 fluxes from fossil fuel combustion and cement production, from ocean surface exchange, from terrestrial biosphere assimilation and respiration, and from biomass burning. Specifically, these include (i) monthly national fossil fuel and cement manufacture CO 2 emission from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) ; (ii) monthly shipping emissions of CO 2 from the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS) (Corbett and Koehler, 2003;Corbett, 2004;Endresen et al, 2004Endresen et al, , 2007; (iii) 3-D aviation CO 2 emissions (Kim et al, 2007;Wilkerson et al, 2010;Friedl 1997); (iv) monthly mean biomass burning CO 2 emissions from the Global Fire Emissions Database version 3 (GFEDv3) (van der Werf et al, 2010); (v) biofuel (heating/cooking) CO 2 emission estimated by Yevich and Logan (2003); (vi) the flux of CO 2 across the air-water interface based on the climatology of monthly ocean-atmosphere CO 2 flux by Takahashi et al (2009);and (vii) 3-hourly terrestrial ecosystem exchange produced by the Boreal Ecosystem Productivity Simulator (BEPS) (Chen et al, 1999), which was driven by NCEP reanalysis data (Kalnay et al, 1996) and remotely sensed leaf area index (LAI) (Deng et al, 2006). The annual terrestrial ecosystem exchange imposed in each grid box is neutral (Deng and Chen, 2011).…”

Section: Forward Modelingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Inferring regional sources and sinks of atmospheric CO2 from GOSAT XCO2 data

et al. 2014

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract.We have examined the utility of retrieved columnaveraged, dry-air mole fractions of CO 2 (XCO 2 ) from the Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite (GOSAT) for quantifying monthly, regional flux estimates of CO 2 , using the GEOS-Chem four-dimensional variational (4D-Var) data assimilation system. We focused on assessing the potential impact of biases in the GOSAT CO 2 data on the regional flux estimates. Using different screening and bias correction approaches, we selected three different subsets of the GOSAT XCO 2 data for the 4D-Var inversion analyses, and found that the inferred global fluxes were consistent across the three XCO 2 inversions. However, the GOSAT observational coverage was a challenge for the regional flux estimates. In the northern extratropics, the inversions were more sensitive to North American fluxes than to European and Asian fluxes due to the lack of observations over Eurasia in winter and over eastern and southern Asia in summer. The regional flux estimates were also sensitive to the treatment of the residual bias in the GOSAT XCO 2 data. The largest differences obtained were for temperate North America and temperate South America, for which the largest spread between the inversions was 1.02 and 0.96 Pg C, respectively. In the case of temperate North America, one inversion suggested a strong source, whereas the second and third XCO 2 inversions produced a weak and strong sink, respectively. Despite the discrepancies in the regional flux estimates between the three XCO 2 inversions, the a posteriori CO 2 distributions were in good agreement (with a mean difference between the three inversions of typically less than 0.5 ppm) with independent data from the Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TC-CON), the surface flask network, and from the HIAPER Pole-to-Pole Observations (HIPPO) aircraft campaign. The discrepancy in the regional flux estimates from the different inversions, despite the agreement of the global flux estimatesPublished by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. 3704F. Deng et al.: Inferring regional sources and sinks of atmospheric CO 2 from GOSAT XCO 2 data suggests the need for additional work to determine the minimum spatial scales at which we can reliably quantify the fluxes using GOSAT XCO 2 . The fact that the a posteriori CO 2 from the different inversions were in good agreement with the independent data although the regional flux estimates differed significantly, suggests that innovative ways of exploiting existing data sets, and possibly additional observations, are needed to better evaluate the inferred regional flux estimates.

show abstract

Section: Forward Modelingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Inferring regional sources and sinks of atmospheric CO2 from GOSAT XCO2 data

et al. 2014

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…They are read in by the model at the beginning of each simulated month, interpolated to the model grid and converted to emission densities that the model uses in the continuity equations to calculate the temporal evolution of the chemical species. We also adopted the temporal disaggregation of the monthly emission values given by Wilkerson et al (2010). They provide weekly and hourly global profiles, so profiles are the same for every geographic region and reflect the evolution of the global emission value, and not the actual local variation of the emissions.…”

Section: Emission Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling the present and future impact of aviation on climate: an AOGCM approach with online coupled chemistry

et al. 2013

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. Our work is among the first that use an atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) with online chemistry to evaluate the impact of future aviation emissions on temperature. Other particularities of our study include non-scaling to the aviation emissions, and the analysis of models' transient response using ensemble simulations. The model we use is the Météo-France CNRM-CM5.1 earth system model extended with the REPROBUS chemistry scheme. The time horizon of our interest is 1940-2100, assuming the A1B SRES scenario. We investigate the present and future impact of aviation emissions of CO 2 , NO x and H 2 O on climate, taking into account changes in greenhouse gases, contrails and contrail-induced cirrus (CIC). As in many transport-related impact studies, we distinguish between the climate impacts of CO 2 emissions and those of non-CO 2 emissions. Aviation-produced aerosol is not considered in the study. Our modeling system simulated a notable sea-ice bias in the Arctic, and therefore results concerning the surface should be viewed with caution. The global averaged near-surface CO 2 impact reaches around 0.1 K by the end of the 21st century, while the non-CO 2 impact reaches 0.2 K in the second half of the century. The NO x emissions impact is almost negligible in our simulations, as our aviation-induced ozone production is small. As a consequence, the non-CO 2 signal is very similar to the CIC signal. The seasonal analysis shows that the strongest warming due to aviation is modeled for the late summer and early autumn.In the stratosphere, a significant cooling is attributed to aviation CO 2 emissions (−0.25 K by 2100). A −0.3 K temperature decrease is modeled when considering all the aviation emissions, but no significant signal appears from the CIC or NO x forcings in the stratosphere.

show abstract

“…Of these three regions, the NH mid-latitude region currently has the highest proportion of global air traffic (e.g. Wilkerson et al, 2010). Air traffic growth is projected in all three regions, particularly in the tropics; for example, Owen et al (2010) predict 5 times as much air traffic in some regions in 2050 compared to 2000 for the A2 scenario (their Fig.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Ice supersaturation and the potential for contrail formation in a changing climate

Irvine

Shine

2015

Earth Syst. Dynam.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. Ice supersaturation (ISS) in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere is important for the formation of cirrus clouds and long-lived contrails. Cold ISS (CISS) regions (taken here to be ice-supersaturated regions with temperature below 233 K) are most relevant for contrail formation. We analyse projected changes to the 250 hPa distribution and frequency of CISS regions over the 21st century using data from the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 simulations for a selection of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models. The models show a global-mean, annual-mean decrease in CISS frequency by about one-third, from 11 to 7 % by the end of the 21st century, relative to the present-day period 1979-2005. Changes are analysed in further detail for three subregions where air traffic is already high and increasing (Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes) or expected to increase (tropics and Northern Hemisphere polar regions). The largest change is seen in the tropics, where a reduction of around 9 percentage points in CISS frequency by the end of the century is driven by the strong warming of the upper troposphere. In the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes the multi-model-mean change is an increase in CISS frequency of 1 percentage point; however the sign of the change is dependent not only on the model but also on latitude and season. In the Northern Hemisphere polar regions there is an increase in CISS frequency of 5 percentage points in the annual mean. These results suggest that, over the 21st century, climate change may have large impacts on the potential for contrail formation; actual changes to contrail cover will also depend on changes to the volume of air traffic, aircraft technology and flight routing.

show abstract

Analysis of emission data from global commercial aviation: 2004 and 2006

Cited by 233 publications

References 14 publications

Inferring regional sources and sinks of atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> from GOSAT XCO<sub>2</sub> data

Inferring regional sources and sinks of atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> from GOSAT XCO<sub>2</sub> data

Modeling the present and future impact of aviation on climate: an AOGCM approach with online coupled chemistry

Ice supersaturation and the potential for contrail formation in a changing climate

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About

Analysis of emission data from global commercial aviation: 2004 and 2006

Cited by 233 publications

References 14 publications

Inferring regional sources and sinks of atmospheric CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; from GOSAT XCO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; data

Inferring regional sources and sinks of atmospheric CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; from GOSAT XCO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; data

Modeling the present and future impact of aviation on climate: an AOGCM approach with online coupled chemistry

Ice supersaturation and the potential for contrail formation in a changing climate

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About

Inferring regional sources and sinks of atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> from GOSAT XCO<sub>2</sub> data

Inferring regional sources and sinks of atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> from GOSAT XCO<sub>2</sub> data