Elevational climatic heterogeneity, complex terrains, and varying subsurface properties affect the sensitivity of evapotranspiration (ET) in dryland mountain forests to hydrometeorological changes. However, the elevational distribution of ET sensitivity and its major influencing factors remain poorly understood. This study focused on the mid-altitude zone (1000–3500 m) forests in the Chinese Western Tianshan Mountains and assessed ET sensitivity to multiple climate variables, including precipitation (P) and potential evapotranspiration (PET), from 2000 to 2020. To evaluate the multi-year mean and trends in ET sensitivity, multi-source remote sensing data and regional survey data were analyzed using Spearman’s correlation coefficient, the sliding window method, and Kendall’s test. Furthermore, the relative importance of environmental variables (topography, geology, soil, and vegetation) was investigated. P and PET showed no significant trends, while ET exhibited a significant increasing trend (5.81 mm/yr, p < 0.01), particularly at elevations above 2000 m. Most forests (93.5%) showed a positive sensitivity of ET to P, and 70.0% showed a positive sensitivity of ET to PET, mainly at elevations of 1500–2500 m. Additionally, the trend in ET sensitivity to P decreased with an increasing elevation, with 64.5% showing a positive trend. Meanwhile, the trend in ET sensitivity to PET increased with elevation, with 88.1% showing a positive trend. Notably, 53.2% of the forests showed increasing ET sensitivity trends to both P and PET, primarily at elevations of 2000–3000 m with a mean normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) of 0.56. Geological factors, particularly the hydrological properties of weathered bedrock, contributed the most (~47%) to mean sensitivity. However, geological and vegetative factors, including the NDVI and root zone water availability, were the main contributors (35% each) to the sensitivity. This study highlights the elevation-dependent sensitivity of dryland mountain forests to hydrothermal changes, with higher-elevation forests (>2000 m) being more sensitive to global warming.
