Analysis of degradation models for modelling the lifetime heterogeneity of complex systems

Abstract

Lifetime heterogeneity results from differing lifetimes of subsystems and components (entities) within a system and is a key criteria to evaluate life cycle options, like upgrading or reuse, for more sustainable products. In early design stages of products for new use cases only limited information for lifetime prognosis are available. This paper proposes a concept to forecast the lifetime of products without experimental data. For purpose a systematic review is conducted to analyze degradation models of Li-ion batteries and electric motors. By analyzing and comparing similarities regarding influencing factors and their impact, fundamentals for degradation modelling are derived. Based on these findings a procedure for lifetime prediction in early design stages for emerging products, like Li-ion batteries and electric motors, are derived.

Selection of Model Approaches and Modelling Methods for Lifetime Prognosis

“…Based on previous research (Bauer and Inkermann, 2022), the developed procedure was applied to an electric motor and a battery for electric powertrains of aircraft. To do this, the damage behavior was evaluated first using the criteria from Table 4.…”

“…The available data are also less suitable for intelligent and stochastic methods, since many measurements from systems which are as similar as possible required. Existing data can be sufficient for curve fitting, but because of differences between the associated systems, model parameters must be estimated, which can significantly reduce the accuracy of the prognosis (Bauer and Inkermann, 2022). In general, due to the lack of in situ data of the considered system, only similarity-based empirical methods can be used.…”