Analysis of Current Trends in United States Mesothelioma Incidence

Abstract

Mesothelioma incidence often is interpreted as an index of past exposure to airborne asbestos. The mesothelioma rate for US males exhibits an increasing trend throughout the 1970s and early 1980s. The trend has been attributed to occupational exposure in the shipbuilding industry during World War II, in manufacturing, and in building construction. Incidence data (1973-1992) from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program were used to investigate current trends in age-adjusted and age-specific mesothelioma rates. An age and birth-cohort model was used to project both lifetime probabilities of mesothelioma by cohort and the annual number of cases expected over the next 70 years. The current trend in female rates is flat (age-adjusted rate = 0.30 per 100,000). The estimated lifetime risk for females is 2.5 x 10(-4), independent of birth cohort. The projected average annual number of female cases is 500. For males, the age-adjusted mesothelioma rate is increasing solely due to the age group 75 years and over, albeit at a declining growth rate. Lifetime risk for males peaks at 2 x 10(-3) for the 1925-1929 birth cohort, then decreases to 5 x 10(-4) for the 1955-1959 birth cohort. The pattern of rates reflected in the age and birth-cohort model suggests a peak in the annual number of mesothelioma cases for males at 2,300 before the year 2000. The number of male cases then will drop during the next 50-60 years toward 500. These trends mirror the US trend in raw asbestos consumption and a reduction in workplace airborne asbestos levels.

Mesothelioma incidence seems to have leveled off in Sweden

“…[3][4][5] The model-based predictions on future incidence in mesothelioma have estimated maximal incidence between years 2015 and 2030 in Western Europe but sooner in USA where the use ceased earlier. [1][2][3]6 Consistent with these models, the incidence of pleural mesothelioma has been increasing in the countries for which data are available, including Sweden. 2,[7][8][9] Asbestos imports to Sweden were drastically reduced in 1976, which time has coincided with the maximal use of asbestos in many industrialized countries.…”

“…1,2 Reasons for the increase are the delay between exposure and disease, which is thought to be 30 or more years, and indirect exposure. [3][4][5] The model-based predictions on future incidence in mesothelioma have estimated maximal incidence between years 2015 and 2030 in Western Europe but sooner in USA where the use ceased earlier.…”

Re-expression of the tumor suppressor NF2/merlin inhibits invasiveness in mesothelioma cells and negatively regulates FAK

“…Approximately 2500 new cases of MM are reported annually in the USA, and the rising worldwide incidence of the disease is not expected to peak for another 10 to 20 years. (Price, 1997;Price and Ware, 2004;Robinson and Lake, 2005).…”

Evolution of pleural cancers and malignant pleural mesothelioma incidence in France between 1980 and 2005

“…[8][9][10][11][12] Nevertheless, mesothelioma incidence in men in the United States and in the population of Sweden seems to have levelled off in the 1990s. [13][14][15][16][17] In Finland, a reduction of the incidence increase was also noted in the early 1990s. 18 In France, mesothelioma incidence and mortality rates increased between 1980 and 2000.…”