Analysis of Current and Future Forest Disturbances Dynamics in Central Europe

Abstract

The area of forests and the standing volume per hectare are constantly increasing in Europe, and this trend is expected to continue for several more decades; the aim of this paper was to provide an empirical overview of the development of disturbances in selected countries of central Europe and based on this overview to empirically model and predict the development and intensity of disturbances in the future. Statistical methods (Holt–Winters) and predictive risk models of the growth simulator SIBYLA were used for prediction. From the statistically predicted values by this method, it follows that, in the next three years, it is possible to assume that stagnation will result in declining volumes of incidental fellings in all countries. Forecast from the growth simulator SIBYLA shows a substantial increase in the predicted volume of incidental fellings for the years 2021 and 2022, compared with 2020. The volumes of incidental fellings should grow most significantly, especially in Germany, Poland, and Austria. The performed analysis and predictions suggest that the peak of wood volumes damaged by disturbances in the next decade will probably be reached already in the reports for 2021 or 2022. However, the risk of disturbances remains high, and other large-scale area disturbances in forest ecosystems cannot be completely ruled out.

The Impact of Natural Disturbances on the Central European Timber Market—An Analytical Study

“…The relationship between natural influences, climate change, European policies, and the geopolitical situation in the world enters and significantly influences the market environment in unpredictable cycles. In Central Europe, this period spans between 2015 and 2020 and has relatively the same wide-ranging consequences [24] and accompanying characteristics in the Central European landscapes we have analysed. The current problems with the huge volume of calamitous timber concentrated in Central Europe open up many other problems, the solution of which must be based on empirical facts and data.…”

“…Increased wood harvesting is becoming a highly debated topic not only at the political level but also in the scientific community, as also indicated by studies [16,19,20]. In the papers published so far, the authors tend to analyse selected types of disturbances [21,22], analyse historical links and predict the future development of disturbances [5,23,24], or focus on data only at the level of a selected region, such as in [25,26], without considering the international context of the problem and the macroeconomic context.…”

Biocrusts: Overlooked hotspots of managed soils in mesic environments

“…Accordingly, biocrusts could make a significant contribution. Considering the large extent of biocrust colonization in managed mesic environments, and these areas’ projected expansion due to climate change (Gejdoš & Michajlová, 2022; Senf & Seidl, 2021), further studies will be necessary to evaluate their contributions to ecosystem services and global relevance (Ferrenberg et al., 2017). Interdisciplinary physical, biological, microbiological, chemical, and applied soil research will be indispensable in understanding the development and influence of biocrusts in mesic and anthropogenically impacted environments.…”