Analysis of COVID-19 Test Positivity Rate in West Sumatra, Indonesia: A Cross-sectional Study of One-year Observation

Abstract

Background: The test positivity rate (TPR) of COVID-19 is an epidemiological indicator used to estimate SARS-CoV-2 transmission in a population at a certain time. However, large data analysis on the TPR in Indonesia is still limited. In this study, we determined COVID-19 TPR dynamics of Indonesian West Sumatra Province in the first year of cases were recorded.Method: We conducted an observational study with a cross-sectional approach from one-year secondary data of COVID-19 test using qualitative reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (q-RT-PCR) in West Sumatra collected from April 2020 until March 2021. The TPR(s) in the province, its regions (cities/ regencies), and districts were determined annually, quarterly, and monthly to analyze their trends.Results: From a total of 410,424 individuals taking COVID-19 q-RT-PCR examination during one-year observation, the provincial TPR was 8.11%. The highest TPR quarterly and monthly was detected in the third quarter (October 2020 – December 2020, 12.18%) and October 2020 (15.62%) respectively. The TPR of cities was likely two times higher than regencies. There were significant differences in annual TPR between regions, districts, and any period of times detected in this study.Conclusion: We have shown the COVID-19 q-RT-PCR TPR dynamics to describe SARS-CoV-2 transmission control among different areas in West Sumatra. This study should be beneficial to ensure an effective COVID-19 preventive strategy in the future.