Analysis of COVID-19 infection spread in Japan based on stochastic transition model

Karako, Kenji; Song, Peipei; Chen, Yu; Tang, Wei

doi:10.5582/bst.2020.01482

Cited by 86 publications

(96 citation statements)

References 12 publications

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“…The main transmission of COVID-19 starts with human-tohuman contact, including relatives and friends who have intimate contact with patients or incubating carriers. Many studies have reported that coughing and sneezing are quicker routes of virus dispersion, indicating the need for droplet and airborne precautions when encountering an infected person [5].…”

Section: Prevalence and Epidemiologymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Supportive treatment is needed for those with severe COVID-19. Specific attention should be given to and more efforts made to reduce transmission to susceptible populations, including health-care providers, immunocompromised patients, children and the elderly [5]. Health-care systems around the world must operate with more than one maximum capacity.…”

Section: Preventionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Mutated COVID-19 may foretell a great risk for mankind in the future

Dawood

2020

New Microbes and New Infections

146

118

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Coronavirus disease 2019 SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) is a zoonotic virus causing a variety of severe respiratory diseases. SARS-CoV-2 is closest to SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV in structure. The high prevalence of COVID-19 is a result of a lack of symptoms at onset. Our study aimed to present an overview of the virus in terms of structure, epidemiology, symptoms, treatment and prevention. Whole genome sequences and some viral proteins were investigated to determine gaps and changes in alternation of nucleotides and amino acid sequences. We evaluate 11 complete genome sequences of different coronaviruses using BAST and MAFFT software. We also selected seven types of structural proteins. We conclude that COVID-19 might produce new mutations, specifically in glycoproteins, so caution and complete preparation by health authorities is required.

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Section: Prevalence and Epidemiologymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Preventionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mutated COVID-19 may foretell a great risk for mankind in the future

Dawood

2020

New Microbes and New Infections

146

118

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…This also helps health-care providers perceive the risks involved for certain groups in order to better influence their health-related behaviour ( BMJ 2020 ; Brewer et al 2007 ). In relation to the COVID-19 virus, a range of susceptibility studies have been performed to understand how the physiological attributes of patients condition their response to the virus ( Rothan and Byrareddy 2020 ; Shi et al 2020 ; Zhao et al 2020 ), and its links with the disease's spread in different areas ( Fanelli and Piazza 2020 ; Karako et al 2020 ). Other studies have compared habits like smoking ( Wang et al 2020 ) or ambient environmental conditions ( Coccia 2020 ; Wu et al 2020 ) with the virus' threat and examined how co-morbidities can occur due to underlying health issues ( Li et al 2020 ; Yang et al 2020 ).…”

Section: Susceptibility and Vulnerability Analyses In Contextmentioning

confidence: 99%

A district-level susceptibility and vulnerability assessment of the COVID-19 pandemic's footprint in India

Imdad

Sahana

Rana

et al. 2021

Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology

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Highlights Examines the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic in India in four separate time steps. Uses geospatial and geostatistical measure to identify viral hotspots and clusters. Analyses COVID-19′s correlates at the district level, eliciting detailed outputs. Gauges epidemiological susceptibility and socioeconomic vulnerability to COVID-19. Provides a framework for denoting districts where lockdown measures can be eased.

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“…Over the past few months, several national and provincial disease outbreak models have been developed to investigate the likely effects of strategies for slowing or mitigating the spread of COVID-19. [3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10] As the pandemic spread to European countries and North America in late February, several models have started to focus on these specific geographic regions. [11][12][13] Since the pandemic is now emerging in other regions, these is an increasing need to modify existing models to the settings pertinent to other resource-limited geographic regions such as South East Asian countries, where a large proportion of global population resides.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of effects of public health interventions on COVID-19 transmission for Pakistan: A mathematical simulation study

Bhutta

Harari²,

Park

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Background:In an effort to contain the COVID-19 epidemic, many governments across the world have enforced lockdown or social distancing measures. Several outbreak models have been developed to investigate the effects of different public health strategies for COVID-19, but they have not been developed for Pakistan and other South East Asian countries, where a large proportion of global population resides. Methods:We developed a stochastic individual contact model by extending the widelyused Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) compartment model with additional compartments to model both anticipated mitigating effects of public health intervention strategies for Pakistan. We estimated the projected spread, number of hospitalizations, and case fatalities under no intervention and four increasingly stringent public health strategies of social distancing and self-isolation at the national and provincial levels of Pakistan.Results: Our analysis shows that without any public health interventions the expected number of cumulative case fatalities is 671,596 in Pakistan with the virus is expected to peak in terms of the number of required ICU-hospitalizations at 198,593 persons by the end of the June 2020. The estimated total numbers of cumulative case fatalities are lower for other public health strategies with strict social distancing showing the lowest number of deaths at 1,588 (Self-isolation: n=341,359; Flexible social distancing strategy: n=3,995; and Exit strategy: n=28,214). The lowest number of required ICUhospitalization is also estimated for strict social distancing strategy (n=266 persons at the end of May 2020). Generally, the simulated effects of the different public health

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Analysis of COVID-19 infection spread in Japan based on stochastic transition model

Cited by 86 publications

References 12 publications

Mutated COVID-19 may foretell a great risk for mankind in the future

Mutated COVID-19 may foretell a great risk for mankind in the future

A district-level susceptibility and vulnerability assessment of the COVID-19 pandemic's footprint in India

Evaluation of effects of public health interventions on COVID-19 transmission for Pakistan: A mathematical simulation study

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