Analysis of Conflict Diffusion Over Continuous Space

Abstract

This study illustrates an innovative application of methods in spatial statistics to study the diffusion of conflict events. We investigate how spatial processes of conflict events vary with different characteristics of the events and actors involved in the events. Actor-level attributes have often been ignored in existing empirical studies, which could lead to insufficient modeling of conflict processes and patterns. Due to recent technological and systems advances, conflict events can now be analyzed using data measured at the event (point) level, rather than relying on aggregated units. Our research contributions are twofold. First, through the case of South Sudan, we demonstrate how intensity and covariance functions, defined by the log-Gaussian Cox process model, can be used to explore the complex underlying diffusion mechanism under various characteristics of conflict events. Second, our findings add to the explanation for the process of conflict diffusion. Our analysis reveals that battles with territorial gains for one side tend to diffuse over larger distances than battles with no territorial change, and that conflicts with longer duration exhibit stronger spatial dependence.