Analysis of climate extremes indices over northeast Brazil from 1961 to 2014

Costa, Rafaela Lisboa; Baptista, Gustavo Macêdo de Mello; Gomes, Heliofábio Barros; Silva, Fabrício Daniel dos Santos; Júnior, Rodrigo Lins da Rocha; Salvador, Mozar de Araújo; Herdies, Dirceu Luís

doi:10.1016/j.wace.2020.100254

Cited by 82 publications

(58 citation statements)

References 50 publications

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“…The risks arising from climate variability, whether natural or of anthropogenic origin, have raised great concern in the scientific and political milieus, in the media and in the general population, especially in regions that are more susceptible to natural risks, such as the Brazilian semiarid region (Brito et al 2017). There are some studies regarding the rainfall behavior trends, analysis of climate extremes and drought indices in the semiarid zone of Brazil (da Barbosa and Kumar 2016;Alves et al 2017;Tomasella et al 2018;Santos et al 2019b;Marçal et al 2019;Costa et al 2020), mainly observing droughts in the last decades of the 20th century. However, none of the work provides a detailed study regarding rainfall trends, rainfall erosivity, land degradation and water management in the Epitácio Pessoa reservoir.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial distribution and estimation of rainfall trends and erosivity in the Epitácio Pessoa reservoir catchment, Paraíba, Brazil

et al. 2020

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The main goals of this study are to better understand the spatial and temporal variabilities in rainfall and to identify rainfall trends and erosivity for the period from 1963 to 1991 in the Epitácio Pessoa reservoir catchment, which is located in Paraíba, northeastern Brazil. This study analyzes annual rainfall trends on a regional scale by using monthly data from 13 rainfall stations. For this purpose, the nonparametric Mann–Kendall and Sen methods were used in the analysis. Descriptive statistics methods and interpolation techniques were also used for spatial–temporal analysis of the annual rainfall. A detailed statistical analysis applied to the time series of all the stations indicates that the rainfall presents substantial annual spatial–temporal variability and a negative trend (decrease) in the mean rainfall at most of the rainfall stations in the catchment during the study period. The results only showed a positive trend for the Soledade and Pocinhos stations. The distribution of positive and negative trends in the Epitácio Pessoa reservoir catchment is extremely irregular, and the changes in the study area are more significant compared to those identified in other studies. Graphic abstract

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial distribution and estimation of rainfall trends and erosivity in the Epitácio Pessoa reservoir catchment, Paraíba, Brazil

et al. 2020

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“…Some modes of variability modulate the rainfall over the NEB, with low temporal frequency, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (Servain 1991, Servain et al 2000, Kousky & Kayano 1994, Kayano & Andreoli 2004, Kayano & Capistrano 2014. The influence of different systems in this vast region require a subdivision into three major climatic areas, as in Costa et al (2020). The determination of those subregions was achieved by employing a hierarchical cluster analysis to the PRCP, TX and TN data sets, adopting the Euclidian distance as a measure of similarity (Mimmack et al 2001) and, for the clustering algorithm, we used the Ward Method.…”

Section: Regionalization Of Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The region comprises nine states of the Federation (Figure 1a). Observed rainfall data (PRCP), maximum temperatures (TX), minimum temperatures (TN) and relative humidity (RH) from 97 weather stations, installed and managed by the National Meteorological Institute of Brazil (INMET, acronym in Portuguese), located in the NEB (Figure 1b), from 1961 to 2000, are used to characterize the climatology of the region for the purpose of detecting climatically homogeneous regions (Costa et al 2020), as well as to calculate the KDI thermal comfort index (Ono & Kawamura 1991), and to serve as a parameter for calibrating (1961-1990) and validating (1991-2000) the SDSM used to generate future climate scenarios.…”

Section: Area Of Study and Observed Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of future climate scenarios for northeastern Brazil and implications for human thermal comfort

Costa

Baptista

Gomes

et al. 2021

An. Acad. Bras. Ciênc.

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A thermal comfort index for the Northeast of Brazil was analyzed for two scenarios of climatic changes, A1B and A2, for 2021-2080, and compared with the reference period 1961-1990. A technique of regionalization was applied to rainfall, maximum and minimum temperature data from meteorological stations, obtained by statistical downscaling of projections from four global climate models. The results pointed to a signifi cant reduction of rainfall and an increase of temperature for three different climatically homogeneous subregions. Regarding the thermal comfort index, the results point to an increase in days with heat discomfort between 2021 and 2080. In the northern portion, the higher percentage of days with heat discomfort will be signifi cant since the fi rst half of the period under appreciation, i.e., from 2021 to 2050. Conversely, in the eastern of northeastern Brazil, the increase of days with heat discomfort should happen in the period from 2051 to 2080, whereas the central-western part of the region, which, in the reference period, had recorded less than 1% of days with heat discomfort, might see an elevation of that percentage to 7% between 2021 and 2050, potentially reaching 48% of its days made uncomfortable by heat between 2051 and 2080.

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“…The location of surface weather stations can be seen merged in Figure 1 (left panel). INMET data are subjected to a rigorous quality control and homogenization, providing confidence in data processing [47][48][49][50][51].…”

Section: Standardized Precipitation Indexmentioning

confidence: 99%

Bivariate Assessment of Drought Return Periods and Frequency in Brazilian Northeast Using Joint Distribution by Copula Method

et al. 2020

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The Northeast region of Brazil (NRB) is the most populous semiarid area in the world and is extremely susceptible to droughts. The severity and duration of these droughts depend on several factors, and they do not necessarily follow the same behavior. The aim of this work is to evaluate the frequency of droughts in the NRB and calculate the return period of each drought event using the copula technique, which integrates the duration and severity of the drought in the NRB in a joint bivariate distribution. Monthly precipitation data from 96 meteorological stations spatially distributed in the NRB, ranging from 1961 to 2017, are used. The copula technique is applied to the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) on the three-month time scale, testing three families of Archimedean copula functions (Gumbel–Hougaard, Clayton and Frank) to reveal which model is best suited for the data. Averagely, the most frequent droughts observed in the NRB are concentrated in the northern sector of the region, with an observed duration varying from three and a half to five and a half months. However, the eastern NRB experiences the most severe droughts, lasting for 14 to 24 months. The probability distributions that perform better in modeling the series of severity and duration of droughts are exponential, normal and lognormal. The observed severity and duration values show that, for average values, the return period across the region is approximately 24 months. Still in this regard, the southernmost tip of the NRB stands out for having a return period of over 35 months. Regarding maximum observed values of severity and duration, the NRB eastern strip has the longest return period (>60 months), mainly in the southeastern portion where a return period above 90 months was observed. The northern NRB shows the shortest return period (~45 months), indicating that it is the NRB sector with the highest frequency of intense droughts. These results provide useful information for drought risk management in the NRB.

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Analysis of climate extremes indices over northeast Brazil from 1961 to 2014

Cited by 82 publications

References 50 publications

Spatial distribution and estimation of rainfall trends and erosivity in the Epitácio Pessoa reservoir catchment, Paraíba, Brazil

Spatial distribution and estimation of rainfall trends and erosivity in the Epitácio Pessoa reservoir catchment, Paraíba, Brazil

Analysis of future climate scenarios for northeastern Brazil and implications for human thermal comfort

Bivariate Assessment of Drought Return Periods and Frequency in Brazilian Northeast Using Joint Distribution by Copula Method

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