Analysis of climate changes in the forest fund lands of Boyarka Forest Research Station

Abstract

The relevance of the study is conditioned upon the predicted changes in the area, as well as the significant narrowing of the zone of optimal growth of Scots pine. These forecasts are based on obtaining data on the ongoing climate changes. A constant decrease in precipitation, along with a gradual increase in temperature levels, will lead to consequences such as uncontrolled changes in ecosystems. Such a substantial change in abiotic factors caused by human activity plays a key role in the formation of forest coenoses. The main purpose of this study was to analyse the change in the average annual temperature, as well as the monthly amount of precipitation observed in the forest communities in the Separated Subdivision of the National University of Life and Environmental Sciences of Ukraine “Boyarka Forest Research Station”. The analysis is performed over decades to obtain data on the level of temperature change in relation to the previous period. This also includes a comparison of monthly precipitation for 2021 relative to 1991-2020, which is set as normal. To obtain indicators of the average annual temperature, the average value method is used, followed by calculating the value of the average annual temperature for each decade. To find the deviation in total precipitation, the method of estimating the moisture conditions according to total precipitation is used. Therewith, the value of a substantial deviation is taken at 20% relative to the precipitation rate. According to the study results, it was established that in 2001-2010 the average annual temperature changed by 0.83°C relative to the previous decade, and in 2011-2020 by 0.74°C relative to the previous period. Such dynamics indicate a gradual increase in the average annual temperature, which is reflected in the forecasts of the world community. During the estimation of moisture conditions, separate months of 2021 with a critical level of precipitation in relation to the normal period were selected. In March, the amount of precipitation was 43% of normal, in June – 32%, in September – 40%, and in October – only 4.3% of normal. The value in November was observed at 63% of the norm. Such a decrease in the amount of precipitation in relation to a gradual increase in the average annual temperature poses a threat of a decrease in the hydrological level of moisture. This leads to a decrease in the radial increment of tree stands, and a gradual shift in the growing area of Scots pine. The obtained analysis results will further be used to conduct dendrochronological studies of tree rings of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) in the tree stands of the Separated Subdivision of the National University of Life and Environmental Sciences of Ukraine “Boyarka Forest Research Station”