Analysis of Birth Defect Monitoring Data and Comparison of Prediction Models in Lanzhou, China

Abstract

Background:To analyze the distribution of birth defects in Lanzhou, China from 2012 to 2018, to forecast the prevalence in the future, and to provide evidence for prevention of birth defects. Materials and Methods:Monitoring datas for birth defects in Lanzhou from 2012 to 2018 were used to describe its epidemiological characteristics, such as the change of the prevalence and trend, urban-rural differences, the varieties and cis-position. Gray modeling, Curve estimation, Exponential smoothing, and ARIMA were used to predict the occurrence for the next year in the future. Results:The average prevalence rate of total perinatal infants' birth defects was 104.13 per 10000 perinatal infants in the past 7 years in Lanzhou, with an upward trend increasing by 7.74% on average each year. From 2012 to 2018, the average incidence of birth defects in urban and rural areas of Lanzhou was 105.61/10000 and 106.48/10000, respectively, and the overall trend was upward. The most common birth defects in Lanzhou from 2012 to 2018 were cleft lip ± cleft palate and Congenital heart disease. Exponential smoothing model can better fit the number of birth defects in Lanzhou. The predicted results of exponential smoothing model indicate that birth defects in Lanzhou in 2019 are lower than that in 2018.