Analysis of baseline and alternative air quality scenarios for Pakistan: an integrated approach

Abstract

This study aims to assess the current and future air pollution and associated health impacts in Pakistan. In this study, the Pakistan Integrated Energy Model (Pak-IEM) is used to assess current and future energy consumption in Pakistan. To assess air pollution levels and associated health impacts, we used the Greenhouse gas and Air pollution INteractions and Synergies (GAINS) model. A linkage has been established between both the models to feed the energy outputs from Pak-IEM into GAINS for exploring different scenarios. Mainly, the emissions of three air pollutants (SO, NO, and PM) as well as the associated health impacts of increased emissions are assessed. Baseline emission scenario (BES) shows a growth in emissions of SO, NO, and PM by a factor of 2.4, 2.2, and 2.5 between 2007 and 2030. In terms of health impacts, by 2030, annual mean concentrations of fine particles (PM) would increase to more than 150 μg/m in some parts of Punjab region of Pakistan, for which loss in statistical life expectancy is calculated to increase from 30 to 60 months in 2007 up to 60-100 months in 2030 on average.

Cleaner and Sustainable Energy Production in Pakistan: Lessons Learnt from the Pak-TIMES Model

“…Similarly, sector-specific (transport, industry, residential, and energy) contributions to aerosol (sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, organic carbon, black carbon) emissions were also estimated by Shahid, et al [54]. Mir, et al [55] coupled greenhouse gas and air pollution interactions and synergies (GAINS) model with Pak-IEM and assessed the emissions of SO 2 , NO X , and PM 2.5 from Pakistan's energy sector. Similarly, both historical and future emissions of CO 2 were estimated by Lin and Ahmad [56], using LMDI (log mean divisia index) method.…”

“…In this context, the government's ambition of adopting clean coal technologies is important since coal is the most polluting fuel with increased CO 2 , NO X (NO + NO 2 ), and SO 2 emissions [60]. This is particularly important considering the fact that air pollutants and GHG co-emitted will have environmental impacts at all scales, including local, regional, or global [40,44,55]. The CO 2 intensity of coal is the highest (52 kg CO 2 /kWh) when compared to other fuels, such as natural gas, nuclear, and renewables, having a CO 2 intensity of 0.92 kg CO 2 /kWh and almost 0 and 0 kg CO 2 /kWh, respectively.…”

A comprehensive review of sectorial contribution towards greenhouse gas emissions and progress in carbon capture and storage in Pakistan

“…In order to cope with lack of energy and energy shortages, the country has been producing energy through non‐renewable sources, which have a direct relation with the rise in Pakistan's CO 2 emissions . Despite the fact that GHG emissions in Pakistan are rising, it bears a low impact on the cause of global warming; however, these rising emissions due to energy sources (primarily due to the generation of electricity, production and even transport sector) are major contributors to the country's pollution …”

“…29,40 Despite the fact that GHG emissions in Pakistan are rising, it bears a low impact on the cause of global warming; however, these rising emissions due to energy sources (primarily due to the generation of electricity, production and even transport sector) are major contributors to the country's pollution. 50 Thus, it is the need of the hour to diversify energy generation through water, solar, nuclear, wind and biomass energy. 51 Pakistan was almost energy sufficient merely by the use of hydro energy two decades ago; however, as a result of rapid urbanization and industrialization, its demand and supply gap widened.…”

Meeting Future Energy Needs in the Hindu Kush Himalaya

“…Many studies have projected future energy use, GHG emissions, and air pollutants for individual HKH countries (Amann et al 2008;Klimont et al 2009;IEA 2015;Mir et al 2016;Purohit et al 2010Purohit et al , 2013. However, none assess future energy use and GHG emissions in the HKH mountain region alone.…”