Analysis of Bankruptcy Probability Assessment Models

Abstract

The article analyzes the main models for diagnosing the probability of bankruptcy. It is established that their need for the company is caused primarily by the existence of monetary relations of the company with various authorities, suppliers and consumers, because the obligations that arise in the company in this relationship, mean that within a certain period it must make specific actions in favor of another person: make a payment, deliver goods, provide services, perform work, etc. It is the accumulation of such obligations due to their late fulfillment that can ultimately lead to bankruptcy. It is established that the company's managers should pay much attention to determining financial stability and predicting the probability of bankruptcy as an important component of the company's anti-crisis policy, because early prediction of the crisis will help avoid negative consequences of its occurrence. The table of contents reveals the development, initial conditions of application and the procedure for calculating the probability of bankruptcy on the main domestic and foreign models, such as the five-factor Altman model, Taffler model, Springgate model, Creditman J. Depalian, Beaver system, as well as models Tereshchenko and Matviych. The efficiency of application of foreign models in comparison with domestic ones on concrete examples is checked and the greater predictive ability of domestic models in comparison with foreign ones for the Ukrainian economy is proved. A comparative description of the models is performed, indicating their advantages, disadvantages and features of use in Ukraine. The study used an extensive information base, which includes: legislation on bankruptcy proceedings; statistical information from official government sources; materials of professional publications.